The Death Of The 3rd Year WR Rule?

by Skeller on Nov 21, 2008 12:00 PM EST in Football

One of the most popular "rules" in fantasy football is that wide receivers tend to breakout during their 3rd NFL season. That third season seems to be when WRs adapt to the increased speed and complexity of the pro game and finally get a chance to show what they can do. Of course, some WRs have great rookie or sophomore seasons, but the 3rd year is when the breakout occurs. It's a fantasy football lock!

Except for this year

This year is a wasteland for breakout 3rd year WRs. If you were drafting unknown 3rd year WRs in your fantasy league, you're probably having a Detroit Lion-like season right now. Here's a review of the WRs taken in the 2006 NFL Draft:

1) Santonio Holmes
2) Chad Jackson
3) Sinorice Moss

Wow. Holmes had a great 2007, but hasn't been able to produce at all this year since Roethlisberger spends so much time on his back. I'm not even sure Jackson is still in the league, and Moss is a non-factor with the Giants.

4) Greg Jennings
5) Travis Wilson
6) Derek Hagan
7) Brandon Williams
8) Maurice Stovall

OK, Jennings is a stud, but he was a stud last year too. Everybody expected him to have a good third season, he didn't surprise anybody. Hagan has been a disappointment, Williams has never caught a pass in the NFL, the other guys aren't worth looking up. I'm not even sure Travis Wilson ever existed, let alone was a 3rd round NFL draft pick.

9) Willie Reid
10) Brad Smith
11) Cory Rodgers
12) Jason Avant
13) Demetrius Williams
14) Brandon Marshall

Again, Marshall was a stud -- and a knucklehead -- last season. No surprise there. These other guys are non-entities. It's not just that they're not stars, or they're not fantasy starters, they're not even on the farthest fringes of fantasy football. Of those 14 players, there are the big three (Holmes, Jennings, Marshall) and then I'd be shocked if even one of those 11 guys were on a roster in your fantasy league

15) Skyler Green

OK, I'm stopping now. Skyler Green? The Cowboys drafted a guy named Skyler? Come on.

29) Marques Colston

After 13 more garbage picks, here comes Colston. Also a great pick last season, also not a surprise.

I don't know if 2006 was just a horrendous NFL draft year for wide receivers, or if the 3rd year WR rule has become obsolete as WRs develop faster. That's something to keep an eye on for next year. I will say that the 2007 NFL Draft class already has a number of quality fantasy WRs (Calvin Johnson, Bowe, Ginn, Breaston) excelling during their second year, so maybe the old "rule" does need to be modified.

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The 3rd year rule: Packers edition

One 3rd year WR who might break out in 2009 is the Packers James Jones. If he does, it won’t be because he’s finally adapted to the speed and complexity of the NFL. His 2nd season has been almost completely lost due to injuries. And when he did return this season, he’s found most of playing time taken up by rookie WR Jordy Nelson (who might break out in his 2nd season). Early in the season, it looked like WR Donald Driver might be in decline, at age 33 it’s not unreasonable to expect some decline, but he’s picked it up mid-season and now appears likely to maintain his 2007-2008 level of production for at least another season. The Packers ran a lot of four and five WR sets in 2007, but the pass protection has dropped off, and QB Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder injury has required some kid gloves, so the Packers only use four receivers on occasion and rarely, if ever, use five. So the number of opportunities for Jones has gone down too.

My whole point is that it seems to all be a matter of finding a receiver who will get an opportunity. Jones and Nelson won’t have a big break out 2009 because Driver and Jennings are firmly in front of them and the 3rd and 4th receivers don’t get too many passes thrown their way. I think that has to be a modification to the 3rd year rule.

One last note, I saw that former Packer draft choice Cory Rodgers made the list (oh, the fun announcers could have had with Rodgers completes to Rodgers). He was so awful, despite being a 4th round pick with little competition ahead of him that year, that he didn’t make it out of training camp. Sometimes these guys shouldn’t have been drafted at all, let alone expected to make a jump in their 3rd season.

by Brandon on Nov 21, 2008 1:34 PM EST reply actions

Great point

I should add an update — although he wasn’t drafted, Dolphins’ WR Greg Camarillo is in his third season this year. Considering he caught eight passes total the past two years, his performance this year is a legitimate breakout.

Maybe the 3rd year rule isn’t washed up just yet.

by Skeller on Nov 21, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions