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Fantasy Baseball Fallout For the Johan Santana Trade

Johan Santana has finally been traded, and he was dealt for a package that first surfaced in mid-December.  That is interesting in and of itself.  Who didn't think somewhere in the back of their mind that Santana wasn't going to be dealt to a team that was never mentioned?

Anyhow, this deal should have the effect of moving Johan Santana into the tail end of the 1st round in fantasy drafts.  He had fallen into the mid-second round, but a move to the NL and the idea of facing the pitcher once every nine batters should be enough to get fantasy players jumping at him around #9.

The Twins received three pitchers who shouldn't have much value in 2008.  I expect Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey to do decent imitations of back-end starters learning the ropes - an occasional good game followed by a mediocre one followed by a bomb.  Something akin to a mixture of Scott Baker's 2006 and Kevin Slowey's 2007.  Deolis Guerra isn't a consideration for 2008.

The big fantasy winner is CF Carlos Gomez who should be expected to steal 40+ in a full season's worth of ABs.  After all he did steal 12 bases in just 58 games last season.  His minor league efforts also support that contention.  Right now, I'd lump him in with Astro's CF Michael Bourn.  However, Gomez has a shot at breaking through for 10 HRs, and this could make him more valuable.

FWIW, Johan Santana's ADP is 16.  Michael Bourn is 194, and Carlos Gomez is not currently ranked amongst the 436 players listed at Mock Draft Central.  Expect that to change.

The Santana trade has other fantasy repercussions, too.  First, the Red Sox are no left with two years and $10MM of a 4th OF in Coco Crisp with no obvious trade avenues open so close to Spring Training.  Pennies on the dollar appear to be the current value with rookie Jacoby Ellsbury slated to start in CF.

Second, the Yankees now have to decide where pitchers Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain open the season.  Despite his #1 pitcher ranking, Joba has the misfortune of having been successful as a reliever and having arrived as a major league player when the current zeitgist for young pitchers is to limit their innings pitched to thirty more than thrown the previous season.  This would put Joba's 2008 workload at 142.

Will the Yankees adhere to these latest statistical efforts in hopes of avoiding pitching injuries?

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Johan and Haren : A lesson for Bill Smith
Let's compare the Haren deal to the Johan deal. The Oakland A's dealt Haren while the iron was hot, dealt him to a mid major league market, and received back:

Carlos Gonzalez - The prize for the A's. Diamondbacks #1 prospect this year, he is a talented hiter who has had a tendency to coast in the past but both clubs believe he has the makeup to become a star. Plus arm in RF, he has an outside chance to make the club out of ST.

Chris Carter - Solid hitting prospect has to rely on his hitting to get him to the show, really has no defensive abilities whatsoever. Perfect for the AL.

Brett Anderson - Profiles as a back of the rotation innings eater in the American League, solid strike thrower with excellent command. Probably debuts at some point late in '09 or '10, but fits the profile of what the A's were trying to get based on their lack of successful drafts in recent history.

Aaron Cunnningham - Really aggresive hitter that is at least 2 years awy. Profiles as a LF because of lack of arm strength and defensive ability, but power/speed combo are intriguing provided he continues to work on his techniques.

Dana Eveland - Another arm? Scouts say that his offseason numbers always look good, but when it gets down to it, he seems to be a guy who just gets abused when the season actually starts.

Greg Smith - Yet another arm that was surgically removed from the Diamondbacks organization. Profiles as a reliever in the AL which limits his impact, but still the way Beane stockpiled young talent, considering Smith touches 90 with his fastball and his change is his best pitch, make the Johan deal look like highway robbery.

Here's Bill Smith's biggest deal in his brief time as Twins GM:

Carlos Gomez - Plus arm. Plus bat. Plus raw power. All tools that have allowed him to move very fast through the Mets system. Fits the Twins need more than Fernando Martinez because he is closer to being MLB ready. Excellent instincts on the basepaths allowed him to steal successfully on over 80% of his attempts since signing in 2004.

Deolis Guerra - High risk/reward type prospect. Still only 18, he has some questions about his velocity as well as his curveball, which may hasten a change to another type of breaking pitch as he matures. Still, possesses the type of pedigree as the #1 prospect coming out of his native Venezuela that would think the Twins have been very successful developing.

Phil Humber - In the AL, he is a back of the rotation innings eater that really doesn't make Kevin Slowey look all that bad.

Kevin Mulvey - Another innings eater type. Has a plus fastball that touches 95, but his lack of a true out pitch will hurt him when he moves to the bigs.

In the context of the A's and Twins, I am not sure what the goal is with the Twins. Do they believe they can compete this year with the Tigers and Indians? It seems like signing Morneau and Cuddyer was a way to soften the blow of losing Santana, even if it means that it set the organization back 3-4 years. I really think though, thaty in comparing hte two deals, the A's, with the lesser of the two pitchers, got equivalent value, even considering that Johan was forcing the issue and had only 1 year left.

I thik Bill Smith had better hope that the Mets and Santana cannot come to terms by the Friday (5pm) deadline which has been set for the deal to be finalized, in hopes that he can pry a team to pay more for the best pitcher in the game.

by thomasps3 on Jan 30, 2008 9:57 AM EST reply actions  

Smith
Hestitated and lost.  My question is why he didn't take either of the Red Sox offers as Lester or Ellsbury appear to be ready to contribute now.  Add in Jed Lowrie who looks ready tto, and I have to wonder.

Billy Beane acted decisively and was rewarded with the prospect load one would expect Smith to have received.

by faketeams on Jan 30, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions  

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