Here are the results from a brand new 5X5 fantasy league of which I am member. Rather than just posting the draft and letting people have at it, I thought I would go through my picks, give my rationale, and let people have some insight into my thought process. I do NOT profess to be an expert, just a guy that likes baseball, watching it, reading about it, playing fantasy versions of it. I figure there are couple guys like me in each of your leagues, so I thought doing a show my hand diary might be more useful than just posting this list and moving along. Also, it will be helpful for me to hear comments about my draft.
My thought processes and biases. This is the first time that I've done a minor league draft. An NL only league does a mini, two round draft each year. So, this draft is already four times deeper than that. Plus, my bias is NL guys since I've been reading about them for the past three or four years to keep up with that league. Either because of my bias or something else, I ended up with all NL players.
My second bias is that I wanted to gravitate towards guys who were close to ready or projectable. Again repeating that I'm not expert, I trusted the guys who are. For the first seven rounds, I did NOT have John's book. However, I had complied his newsletters together and had taken all the guys he ranked B+ or higher and made a list of them. I then compared that against Kevin Goldstein's lists at BP, to determine consensus rankings. After I had those, I compared them against the PECOTA numbers. I used PECOTA only to break out and not ties, or at least ties in my mind.
2007 SCFBL Minor League Draft Order
Round 1
Chris: Delmon Young, OF, TB
Matt: Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
Nik: Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
Scott: Brandon Wood, SS, LAA
Jesse: Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
Zach: Matt Garza, SP, MIN
Jason: Chris Young, OF, ARI
Mike: Justin Upton, OF, ARI
Ryan: Billy Butler, OF, KC
JJ: Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
Kenny: Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
Stephen: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
Round 2
Stephen: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
Kenny: Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
JJ: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
Ryan: Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
Mike: Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
Jason: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
Zach: Andrew Miller, SP, DET
Jesse: Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
Scott: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
Nik: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
Matt: Luke Hochevar, SP, KC
Chris: Adam Miller, SP, MIN
Round 3
Chris: Felix Pie, OF, CHC
Matt: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
Nik: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
Scott: Reid Brignac, SS, TB
Jesse: Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
Zach: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
Jason: Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
Mike: Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA
Ryan: Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
JJ: Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL
Kenny: Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
Stephen: Donald Veal, SP, CHC
Round 4
Stephen: Chris Iannetta, C, COL
Kenny: Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE
JJ: Josh Fields, 3B, CHW
Ryan: Billy Rowell, 3B, BAL
Mike: Adam Lind, TOR, OF
Jason: Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
Zach: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
Jesse: Travis Snider, OF, TOR
Scott: William Inman, SP, MIL
10.Nik: James Loney, 1B, LAD
Matt: Eric Hurley, SP, TEX
Chris: Brandon Erbe, SP, BAL
Round 5
Chris: Erick Aybar, SS, LAA
Matt: Adam Jones, OF, SEA
Nik: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB
Scott: Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA
Jesse: Philip Humber, SP, NYM
Zach: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
Jason: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL
Mike: Ryan Sweeney, OF, CWS
Ryan: Jacob McGee, SP, TB
JJ: Chris Volstad, SP, FLA
Kenny: Angel Villalona, 3B, SF
Stephen: Eric Campbell, INF, ATL
Round 6
Stephen: Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN
Kenny: Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY
JJ: Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI
Ryan: Brad Lincoln, SP, PIT
Mike: Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA
Jason: Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC
Zach: Mark Pawalek, SP, CHC
Jesse: Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY
Scott: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD
10.Nik: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
Matt: Michael Bowden, SP, BOS
Chris: Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL
Round 7
Chris: Chris Carter, 1B, ARI
Matt: Bryce Cox, RP, BOS
Nik: Daniel Bard, SP, BOS
Scott: Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL
Jesse: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
Zach: Jeff Clement, C, SEA
Jason: Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA
Mike: Russ Ohlendorf, SP, NYY
Ryan: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL
JJ: Jeff Baker, OF, COL
Kenny: Dellin Betances, SP, NYY
Stephen: Franklin Morales, SP, COL
Round 8
Stephen: Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN
Kenny: Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
JJ: Billy Sadler, SP, SF
Ryan: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN
Mike: John Danks, SP, CHW
Jason: Miguel Montero, C, ARI
Zach: Wade Davis, SP, TB
Jesse: Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX
Scott: Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF
Nik: Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB
Matt: Micah Owings, SP, ARI
Chris: Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC
Round #1: Pick: Chris Young: Rationale: In the first round, I wanted a player that was ready to step in and play. Our keeper system is such that you get the guy for free for three years, or two after the season in which they lose rookie status. I like the speed and power combination that Young provides. Arizona will be better than they were last year, and so he should have more RBI opportunities and score more runs. That said, the west coast parks suppress power. In his first season, I'll settle for a 4th outfielder numbers from him and think he'll get 15-15 at least, and 20-20 probably.
I also considered: Tim Lincecum. I had him down as the best pitching prospect for a 5X5 league. I didn't him take because of two reasons: A) It didn't keep with my philosophy to lock up "a sure thing" in the first round and B) My experience, which proved true later on, is that pitching prospects are always available in later rounds.
Round #2: Pick: Ryan Braun. Rationale: 20-20 potential again. I must admit that I've man crushed Ryan Braun since I saw him play last year at Huntsville. The guy can flat out hit, and hit for power. He runs the bases well, picks his spots to steal, and on top of that, he's a third baseman! (Ok, maybe not for much longer.) I can tolerate a move to a corner OF position for a 20-20 guy that I believe has a shot at hitting .300.
I also considered. Yovani Gallardo, Tulo, and Andy LaRoche. The will he or won't he develop power scared me off Tulo very early. Watching the pitching that went and the order it went, I was not wholly convinced that Yovani might bounce back to me. Pipe dream, probably, but there were a handful of quality pitchers still available, who were only a slight notch below Gallardo. This became a debate over Andy LaRoche and Ryan Braun. I read almost every post in which either was mentioned, read and re-read the major sources on each, and then went and consulted a Ouija Board. (Did you know Ouija is Microsoft's spell checker? Cultish influence runs DEEEEEEP!) Finally, I went with Braun because of the better speed and LaRoche's slight injury concerns. Honestly, this one could have went either way, except for my man crush.
Round #3: Pick: Clayton Kershaw. Seriously, do I need to justify this one? I would say that I was considering others, but I wasn't. I thanked my lucky stars and ran.
Round #4: Pick: Colby Rasmus: My other bias is sometimes I try too hard not to look like a homer. Colby is in the second tier of outfield prospects that should, if they perform as they should, break into A or A- grades next year. The speed and power combination is just too much to pass up. Plus, he's only twenty. I tried to spread this picks out in terms of distance from the majors. He's the best prospect that was on the board at the time. I tried to make a case for Travis Snider, but it just wasn't there for me.
Round #5: Pick: Salty. Geez, how the mighty have fallen! Two years ago, guys were offering ridiculous trades to try to get the number one pick to take Salty. Now, he falls to round five? I'm not going to bore you with my thoughts on Salty, but I think he still has it and will probably be traded for some pitching help during the season.
I also considered Eric Campbell and Angel Villalona, who both went later in the round. I though at my position it was too early for both. I might regret making that decision. Also, in about round number 3 I started playing a game with Kevin Kouzmanoff. Here it accelerated to full steam. Part of the game was to see how truly low he would go. Then again, part of me was screaming to take him, hold him in reserve, and trade him to someone when their third baseman goes down for the season.
Round #6: Pick: Eric Patterson. Brad Lincoln and Morrow disappeared right before my eyes and Patterson was left. I actually like Patterson a lot, and believe that he will get a call up during the summer to take over second, when Jacque Jones is dealt, probably again for pitching. See round five for my who I thought about taking, because Kouz was still there and I was seriously considering him. Why didn't I move on him? Patterson plays second, which there aren't that many great fantasy second baggers out there, so there is low requirement to be a valueable fantasy player. Possible .300 hitter and 30 steals exceeds that requirement by juuuuust a smidge. Plus, I have Braun, why do I need another third baseman.
Round #7: Pick: Taylor Tankersley. I am so smart, S-M-R-T. I had been plotting this pick since at least the fourth round, again playing fantasy chicken. Unlike Kouz, I thought I might actually pull this one off because Tankersley is not on the top 100 of ANY prospect list, and probably doesn't deserve to be. However, he's going to have a legitimate shot at closing in Florida, and that's worth a seventh round pick for me. I'm joking about being so smart, I just thought this was the right time to pull the trigger on a good opportunity.
I considered Franklin Morales here, but I'm just scared of Colorado pitchers. I believe humidors are best for Don Tomas maduros, one of the finest inexpensive cigars you will ever have. I couldn't take him.
Round #8: Pick: Miguel Montero: At the time of the pick, I typed something like, a catcher with plus power? I'll take it. Who else I considered? I"ll never tell, because at least three guys are still available.