Minor League Fantasy Draft

by Brock20 on Feb 2, 2007 8:58 PM EST

Here are the results from a brand new 5X5 fantasy league of which I am member. Rather than just posting the draft and letting people have at it, I thought I would go through my picks, give my rationale, and let people have some insight into my thought process. I do NOT profess to be an expert, just a guy that likes baseball, watching it, reading about it, playing fantasy versions of it. I figure there are couple guys like me in each of your leagues, so I thought doing a show my hand diary might be more useful than just posting this list and moving along. Also, it will be helpful for me to hear comments about my draft.

My thought processes and biases. This is the first time that I've done a minor league draft. An NL only league does a mini, two round draft each year. So, this draft is already four times deeper than that. Plus, my bias is NL guys since I've been reading about them for the past three or four years to keep up with that league. Either because of my bias or something else, I ended up with all NL players.

My second bias is that I wanted to gravitate towards guys who were close to ready or projectable. Again repeating that I'm not expert, I trusted the guys who are. For the first seven rounds, I did NOT have John's book. However, I had complied his newsletters together and had taken all the guys he ranked B+ or higher and made a list of them. I then compared that against Kevin Goldstein's lists at BP, to determine consensus rankings. After I had those, I compared them against the PECOTA numbers. I used PECOTA only to break out and not ties, or at least ties in my mind.

2007 SCFBL Minor League Draft Order
Round 1

Chris: Delmon Young, OF, TB

Matt: Alex Gordon, 3B, KC

Nik: Philip Hughes, SP, NYY

Scott: Brandon Wood, SS, LAA

Jesse: Homer Bailey, SP, CIN

Zach: Matt Garza, SP, MIN

Jason: Chris Young, OF, ARI

Mike: Justin Upton, OF, ARI

Ryan: Billy Butler, OF, KC

JJ: Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM

Kenny: Cameron Maybin, OF, DET

Stephen: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB

Round 2

Stephen: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT

Kenny: Tim Lincecum, SP, SF

JJ: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU

Ryan: Jay Bruce, OF, CIN

Mike: Scott Elbert, SP, LAD

Jason: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL

Zach: Andrew Miller, SP, DET

Jesse: Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD

Scott: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL

Nik: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL

Matt: Luke Hochevar, SP, KC

Chris: Adam Miller, SP, MIN

Round 3

Chris: Felix Pie, OF, CHC

Matt: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS

Nik: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI

Scott: Reid Brignac, SS, TB

Jesse: Elijah Dukes, OF, TB

Zach: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM

Jason: Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD

Mike: Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA

Ryan: Joey Votto, 1B, CIN

JJ: Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL

Kenny: Jose Tabata, OF, NYY

Stephen: Donald Veal, SP, CHC

Round 4

Stephen: Chris Iannetta, C, COL

Kenny: Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE

JJ: Josh Fields, 3B, CHW

Ryan: Billy Rowell, 3B, BAL

Mike: Adam Lind, TOR, OF

Jason: Colby Rasmus, OF, STL

Zach: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS

Jesse: Travis Snider, OF, TOR

Scott: William Inman, SP, MIL

10.Nik: James Loney, 1B, LAD

Matt: Eric Hurley, SP, TEX

Chris: Brandon Erbe, SP, BAL

Round 5

Chris: Erick Aybar, SS, LAA

Matt: Adam Jones, OF, SEA

Nik: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB

Scott: Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA

Jesse: Philip Humber, SP, NYM

Zach: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS

Jason: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL

Mike: Ryan Sweeney, OF, CWS

Ryan: Jacob McGee, SP, TB

JJ: Chris Volstad, SP, FLA

Kenny: Angel Villalona, 3B, SF

Stephen: Eric Campbell, INF, ATL

Round 6

Stephen: Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN

Kenny: Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY

JJ: Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI

Ryan: Brad Lincoln, SP, PIT

Mike: Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA

Jason: Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC

Zach: Mark Pawalek, SP, CHC

Jesse: Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY

Scott: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD

10.Nik: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS

Matt: Michael Bowden, SP, BOS

Chris: Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL

Round 7

Chris: Chris Carter, 1B, ARI

Matt: Bryce Cox, RP, BOS

Nik: Daniel Bard, SP, BOS

Scott: Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL

Jesse: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK

Zach: Jeff Clement, C, SEA

Jason: Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA

Mike: Russ Ohlendorf, SP, NYY

Ryan: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL

JJ: Jeff Baker, OF, COL

Kenny: Dellin Betances, SP, NYY

Stephen: Franklin Morales, SP, COL

Round 8

Stephen: Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN

Kenny: Ian Stewart, 3B, COL

JJ: Billy Sadler, SP, SF

Ryan: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN

Mike: John Danks, SP, CHW

Jason: Miguel Montero, C, ARI

Zach: Wade Davis, SP, TB

Jesse: Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX

Scott: Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF

Nik: Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB

Matt: Micah Owings, SP, ARI

Chris: Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC

Round #1: Pick: Chris Young: Rationale: In the first round, I wanted a player that was ready to step in and play. Our keeper system is such that you get the guy for free for three years, or two after the season in which they lose rookie status. I like the speed and power combination that Young provides. Arizona will be better than they were last year, and so he should have more RBI opportunities and score more runs. That said, the west coast parks suppress power. In his first season, I'll settle for a 4th outfielder numbers from him and think he'll get 15-15 at least, and 20-20 probably.
I also considered: Tim Lincecum. I had him down as the best pitching prospect for a 5X5 league. I didn't him take because of two reasons: A) It didn't keep with my philosophy to lock up "a sure thing" in the first round and B) My experience, which proved true later on, is that pitching prospects are always available in later rounds.
Round #2: Pick: Ryan Braun. Rationale: 20-20 potential again. I must admit that I've man crushed Ryan Braun since I saw him play last year at Huntsville. The guy can flat out hit, and hit for power. He runs the bases well, picks his spots to steal, and on top of that, he's a third baseman! (Ok, maybe not for much longer.) I can tolerate a move to a corner OF position for a 20-20 guy that I believe has a shot at hitting .300.
I also considered. Yovani Gallardo, Tulo, and Andy LaRoche. The will he or won't he develop power scared me off Tulo very early. Watching the pitching that went and the order it went, I was not wholly convinced that Yovani might bounce back to me. Pipe dream, probably, but there were a handful of quality pitchers still available, who were only a slight notch below Gallardo. This became a debate over Andy LaRoche and Ryan Braun. I read almost every post in which either was mentioned, read and re-read the major sources on each, and then went and consulted a Ouija Board. (Did you know Ouija is Microsoft's spell checker? Cultish influence runs DEEEEEEP!) Finally, I went with Braun because of the better speed and LaRoche's slight injury concerns. Honestly, this one could have went either way, except for my man crush.

Round #3: Pick: Clayton Kershaw. Seriously, do I need to justify this one? I would say that I was considering others, but I wasn't. I thanked my lucky stars and ran.

Round #4: Pick: Colby Rasmus: My other bias is sometimes I try too hard not to look like a homer. Colby is in the second tier of outfield prospects that should, if they perform as they should, break into A or A- grades next year. The speed and power combination is just too much to pass up. Plus, he's only twenty. I tried to spread this picks out in terms of distance from the majors. He's the best prospect that was on the board at the time. I tried to make a case for Travis Snider, but it just wasn't there for me.

Round #5: Pick: Salty. Geez, how the mighty have fallen! Two years ago, guys were offering ridiculous trades to try to get the number one pick to take Salty. Now, he falls to round five? I'm not going to bore you with my thoughts on Salty, but I think he still has it and will probably be traded for some pitching help during the season.
I also considered Eric Campbell and Angel Villalona, who both went later in the round. I though at my position it was too early for both. I might regret making that decision. Also, in about round number 3 I started playing a game with Kevin Kouzmanoff. Here it accelerated to full steam. Part of the game was to see how truly low he would go. Then again, part of me was screaming to take him, hold him in reserve, and trade him to someone when their third baseman goes down for the season.

Round #6: Pick: Eric Patterson. Brad Lincoln and Morrow disappeared right before my eyes and Patterson was left. I actually like Patterson a lot, and believe that he will get a call up during the summer to take over second, when Jacque Jones is dealt, probably again for pitching. See round five for my who I thought about taking, because Kouz was still there and I was seriously considering him. Why didn't I move on him? Patterson plays second, which there aren't that many great fantasy second baggers out there, so there is low requirement to be a valueable fantasy player. Possible .300 hitter and 30 steals exceeds that requirement by juuuuust a smidge. Plus, I have Braun, why do I need another third baseman.

Round #7: Pick: Taylor Tankersley. I am so smart, S-M-R-T. I had been plotting this pick since at least the fourth round, again playing fantasy chicken. Unlike Kouz, I thought I might actually pull this one off because Tankersley is not on the top 100 of ANY prospect list, and probably doesn't deserve to be. However, he's going to have a legitimate shot at closing in Florida, and that's worth a seventh round pick for me. I'm joking about being so smart, I just thought this was the right time to pull the trigger on a good opportunity.
I considered Franklin Morales here, but I'm just scared of Colorado pitchers. I believe humidors are best for Don Tomas maduros, one of the finest inexpensive cigars you will ever have. I couldn't take him.
Round #8: Pick: Miguel Montero: At the time of the pick, I typed something like, a catcher with plus power? I'll take it. Who else I considered? I"ll never tell, because at least three guys are still available.

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Comments

Kershaw

When looking over snake drafts, I first find a selection that looks strange and then check those players who were selected following that pick. But only up until you select again.

Kershaw stands out to me. He's very inexperienced and universally lauded, but I'd have taken any of the following ahead of him - Adam Lind, Josh Fields, Chris Iannetta, Jose Tabata - and taken Jacob McGhee instead of Saltalamacchia two rounds later.

Other than that, I liked the rationale of the Patterson pick - second-guessable with Kouzmanoff. You're not going to go wrong with Chris Young so saying Lincecum or Billy Butler would be just as good is splitting hairs.

by faketeams on Feb 2, 2007 10:21 PM EST reply actions

This post

deserves a star, and more than one comment. I will give this some thought and write out what I think about our rationale, and your picks....that isalways what I am looking for, so I'll do that for this well thought out post. Impressive.

by thomasps3 on Feb 3, 2007 12:38 PM EST reply actions

Thanks...

Mofo, I look forward to your thoughts. Thank you for your kind words and hope my diary helps.

Eric, to expand a little further and talk about your points. I had all the guys you mentioned farther down my list than Kershaw. I went with universally lauded and took him there. He was a consesus "dang this kid is good" between both Sickels and Goldstein. I actually had him higher than a third round pick. The drop off between him and the remaining pichers was greater than the drop off between the guys you mentioned and there respective compadres at their positions.

McGhee wasn't even in my top five of pitchers left. I looked back over his reports and I can see why your high on him, but I had Volstad, Sanchez, Slowley, Lincoln and possibly Morrow all slotted ahead of him. He was a guy I was looking ahead at for the sixth round pick.

by Brock20 on Feb 3, 2007 1:52 PM EST reply actions

Kershaw

Kershaw is too far away from the majors for my tastes with so many other players so much closer. I know he is beloved by the prospecting community, but, in fantasy baseball, there has to be a focus on the near-term. For me, 2009 is not good enough - with so many other options who are much closer to contributing.

McGhee has some very good numbers (as I am sure Jake will attest to), and he is closer to the majors than Kershaw. Not a huge fan of Humberto Sanchez yet. His half-a-season of good performance needs to be augmented some more.

Volstad heads a fairly weak farm system, and I'm not sold on a starting pitcher in A-ball with such a poor K/9 ratio. Lincoln hasn't pitched enough to get a good feel.

With both the Marlins and the Pirates, their major league rotations are filled with non-arb players so a clear opportunity isn't available yet.

Slowey is much closer to the Twins rotation and his combined season between high A and AA was very good. On that basis, I'd have little argument with his slection over McGhee.

by faketeams on Feb 4, 2007 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

Thoughts........

So, first of all, this is a rather comprehensive post. Impressive thought process, and just let me say, when I type up something like this, I almost feel let down when I don't get a detailed feedback that matches. So here goes, with a particular note on your picks/thoughts.

Round One: Chris Young. AZ Jim Callis over at BA has him ranked as the #13 prospect overall, and he is penciled in as the starting CF in AZ this year, so with your league settings giving you 3 free years, I understand the pick at the expense of someone like Upton, who may have a bit higher upside, but is farther away. His average may cause you some heartache this year, as his AA/AAA numbers are a composite .276 over the last 2 years, and that may cause the 15/15 year you have envisioned to become a bit more difficult, at least in terms of power. The steals I think will be there, but the line will probably closer resemble a less than 15/more than 15 in terms of HR/SB distribution, but that is purely conjecture at this point. Nice pick though, I like the park in terms of how it rates for hitters, and AZ doesn't have any funny ideas about acquiring veterans who may take away Abs from the future of the franchise, which is the youngsters.

Round One Note: Garza to me is the one that doesn't seem to belong, as Minnesota historically has brought along their rookies in a way that minimizes their roto contributions, although his stuff is truly elite.

Round Two: Ryan Braun. I like the 5th pick's bat since he was picked, although he does have a bit of an unorthodox stance/swing that may need to be ironed out. Milwaukee as an organization seems to favor the homegrown approach, so that is a nice thing to know in terms of them not likely acquiring a 3rd baseman prior to Braun's arrival if a playoff rush is being made. He looks to be an impact bat, but his fielding troubles may be somewhat problematic in terms of a positional move, to a corner OF spot or 1b.

Round Two Note: 6/12 players drafted are pitchers? That to me seems a bit hard to believe, with the volatility involved in comparison to hitters. Not really a note on the quality of players, but in roto, I have more recently been of the mind that hitters are easier to project than pitchers, and I think round two is still drafting very, very good prospects.

Round Three: Clayton Kershaw. BA loves him. Sickels loves him. That is enough to warrant drafting him in the third round of a rotisserie league, especially with a Dodgers system that seemingly has magical pixie dust in their pitchers water. The only difficult thing is how far he is away, and the projectability of such a young pitcher. For every Dwight Gooden, there are 100 Bobby Brownlie's! But there is simply uncontrollable. Nice pick, and cross your fingers.

Round Three note: The Tabata and Brignac picks stand out to me as the picks with the most upside here. Brignac because of the current player at TB, Benjamin Zobrist, is really a stopgap, and Tabata simply because he has amazing tools at such a young age. But your strategy to go hitter/hitter/pitcher was a solid one.

Round Four: I like the Colby Rasmus pick, but I think your hopes he turns into an "A or A- player next year" may be something that I wouldn't hold your breath on. An A player is a truly elite, Vlad Guerrero 5 tool type player who defines the position he plays, and there are only a handful of players like them in the majors. For him to turn into a 30 HR, 10 SB/.300 guy would be a fine player, and to project more than that would be, well, a little soothsayerish. But still, nice upside.
Round Four note: Bill Rowell and Travis Snider are both guys who rate here are high upside, eta 2010 players, but they are both very highly though of, and Rowell was ranked as the best high school bat by BA, with a 75 on the 20-80 scale for hitting power by scouts.

Round Five: Saltalamacchia's star is rapidly fading after last season when he seemingly put on weight, watched his bat slow down, and if memory serves me correctly, didn't he get injured in the AFL? Two other words leap to mind that may be problematic for Mr. Salty: Brian McCann.
Round Five Note: Nick Adenhart is the ace in the hole here. The Angels next big thing, he is two years removed from TJ surgery, so does that mean his arm is now stronger than it was before it? Hmmmm...can this become an elective surgery? Only kidding....but it really seems guys come back from this and do miraculous things.

Round Six: Although Patterson has the bloodlines, the speed, and the batting ability (1000 Abs, .300 average), the Patterson family has somewhat of a checkered history in Chicago. Is he the .235 hitter like his brother who tries to jack everything out of the park? Or is he going to develop some patience, utilize his speed, and learn to use the whole field in order to maximize his tools? Only time will tell, but the results so far are encouraging, as he hit .358 in limited time last year in the PCL.

Round Six Note: Elvis Andrus looks to be a big upside guy here as well, and at a premium position. Pedroia is a player that has been successful through each level of the Red Sox system, but that just doesn't make me excited about him, as I perceive him to have no HR power, no speed, and if your league doesn't count OBP, well, I think he is probably one of the weakest starting 2b in the majors, if he does indeed win the position over (gulp) Alex Cora in spring training.

Round Seven: Taylor Tankersley is a player that I have a lot of interest in for the same reason you do - the potential to be a saves guy in the FLA swamp this year. Good reasoning, good gamble, because everyone else here is just hoping for a contribution in two years.
Round Seven Note: The Bard and Cox picks here are both solid. Cox for his save potential in 2009, Bard for his top of the rotation stuff and composure.

Round Eight: Miguel Montero is a player I cannot add a whole lot about, besides the fact that everyone seem to have him as a sleeper in their NL only leagues this year. Seems like a good pick.

Draft Synopsis: You mentioned in your first two choices the fact that you like Chris Young and Ryan Braun's chances to go 20/20 this year. You may not realize it, but last year, in all of the major leagues, there were only 7 players who did that, and they go by the names of:

Grady Sizemore & Johnny Damon
David Wright & Mike Cameron
Eric Byrnes & Alphonso Soriano
and Jimmy Rollins.

Those guys are the cream of the crop, and to expect 20/20 may be expecting a bit much from a rookie, let alone two, but that is just my thought. Also, one thing that kind of confused me is that you stated you were more comfortable with the National League players and farm systems in relation to American League systems. This becomes somewhat problematic when you factor in the budgets of some of the American League teams scouting departments, and the subsequent grades issued by Baseball America. You are almost asking too much of yourself, in terms of competing on one leg, when you see a team like the Red Sox and Yankees, who spend upwards of $10MM every year on amateur player assessment, and Baseball America notes that their signing bonuses are slotted much higher than average, and you are completely ignoring this league. This strategy will end up costing you players later on, when the pool is shrinking. Overall, I hope this helps, and good luck.

-MoFo

by thomasps3 on Feb 5, 2007 9:52 AM EST reply actions

Garza

Is still underrated by some in my eyes. Last season was his first full season of pro ball and he played in a whopping four levels, dominating three of them. As for immediate impact, his odds of breaking camp with a major league team are better than Bailey's.

by Eli on Feb 6, 2007 8:06 AM EST up reply actions