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Rookie Pitchers

I am in a Strat league, 20 teams.  We have 40 man rosters, and our rookie draft is upcoming.  I have the 7th overall pick, and am trying to figure who exactly to take.  I intend to take a pitcher,  figure DYoung, Weaver and Markakis are locks to be gone. That leaves Hamels,  Billingsley, Sowers, Sanchez amongst others.   I am not interested in immediate help, but best for the long haul.  How would you rank these guys?

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Hamels
I'd be surprised to see hamels fall farther than 4th behind DY, Markakis and Weaver, and I could see him going ahead of Weaver.

Sowers looks like he will be a solid pitcher, and at 7, you may not have too much choice anyhow.

by faketeams on Dec 1, 2006 9:54 PM EST reply actions  

Here is my problem:
Once guys exhaust their rookie eligibility, you don't get anymore info on them.  So although I will know how BA stacks up Bailey, Hughes, Lincecum et al in a few weeks, I don't know how Biilz, Anibal, Sowers, Lester etc. stack up NOW.  I know how they did a year ago, but a lot has changed since then.  SO, I am trying to get a feel from others on how they would rate them.  
I would probably rate them thusly:
Hamels
Billz
Sanchez
Sowers
Miller
Garza

How about the rest of you?

by drwmsu1 on Dec 1, 2006 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Rookie Galore
well for one, i might say i am an expert at rookies, lol,
this past year i drafted Verlander, H. Ramirez, McCann, Liriano and picked up Weaver, Sanchez, Hamels, Billingsley, Sowers, and Anthony Reyes...came in first, yeah i know my team was totally young, but they won

i tend to do more research on the minor leagues than majors its seems and this is what i think of next years young crop for the long haul

  1. Chad Billingsley
  2. Cole Hamels
  3. Philip Hughes
  4. Homer Bailey
  5. Jeff Niemann (im really high on this guy)
  6. Jeremy Sowers
  7. Adam Miller
  8. Thomas Diamond
  9. Anthony Reyes
  10. Jon Lester
Honorable Mention: Mark Rogers, Matt Garza, Andrew Miller

by omshagome on Dec 1, 2006 11:45 PM EST reply actions  

Texas?
Until the Rangers actually have a good fantasy rookie pitcher, I stay away from them.

I think Hamels will be the best because he was the best as a major leaguer last year with no control problems and big Ks. (145 Ks in 132.1 IP 45 BBS).

Billingsley walk 58 and struck out 59 in 90 innings.

After that, I can see Garza improving enough to allow his Ks to make him more valuable than Sowers' ratios.

Anthony Reyes had better peripherals than his ERA indicated.  he could surprise.

I'd rank those over any of the minor leaguers.  I like Adam Miller but the Tribe doesn't have a rotation spot for him.

  1.  Hamels
  2.  Reyes
  3.  Garza
  4.  Billingsley
  5.  Sowers

by faketeams on Dec 2, 2006 8:12 AM EST reply actions  

long haul
i agree 100 percent with you eric on those, cept that i had mine skewered for long term value, which is what myctiger was asking about

Billingsley is huge, ranked no. 2 pitching prospect last year behind Fransisco Liriano, even ahead of the rest..his stuff will be awesome

Hamels also is 23, Billingsley is younger too, and Hamels has had a history with injuries.

I know Hamels Ks more and Bills had some control issues, but in my defense Bills has progressed through the minors way faster so he is going to need some adjustment time.

Billingsley-
2003- Rookie Ball
2004- A+ (18 games)
      AA (8 games)
2004- AA (26 games)
2005- AAA (13 games)
      MLB (18 games)

Hamels-
2003- A (13 games)
      A+ (5 games)
2004- A+ (4 games)
2005- A+ (3 games)
      AA (3 games)
2006- A (1 game)
      A+ (4 games)
      AAA (3 games)
      MLB (23 games)

Billingsley looks like he adjusts well, Hamels looks like an injury machine.

by omshagome on Dec 2, 2006 2:01 PM EST reply actions  

Anibal
Neither of you think Anibal is better long term than Sowers?  That is interesting..

by drwmsu1 on Dec 2, 2006 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

sowers
sowers is better imo for a few reasons,
  1. organization (for Wins)
  2. control (for WHIP) ((both had same 1.19 in 2006, but will change))
  3. age/college experience (for intangibles)
Sanchez definitely wins in Ks
ERA is a wash, Sanchez will not post sub-3 era

by omshagome on Dec 2, 2006 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Sanchez
As much as I enjoy him succeeding while Josh beckett doesn't, AS's Ks are so low that I expect his ERA to rise to the 4.00+ range.

by faketeams on Dec 2, 2006 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Andrew Miller
Forgetting him???  Matt Garza... No liriano or radke... = Chance for Graza and Perkins

by ChrisRef19 on Dec 2, 2006 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

001001001100
i have both Garza and Miller as my honorable mentions

by omshagome on Dec 2, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Hoping to get
one of theses guys in my upcoming draft.  I think I can wait til #27 and get at least one.

by ChrisRef19 on Dec 2, 2006 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

27?
This is a deep draft, and I've only really done my preliminary homework, but I find it hard to believe two pitching prospects with that much upside would fall that far in my league. I hope so, because besides #7 I also have #23 and #26!  

by drwmsu1 on Dec 3, 2006 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Liriano
Francisco is a good draftee for keeper leagues.  His upside is worth a double digit bid.

by faketeams on Dec 2, 2006 7:12 PM EST reply actions  

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