Help needed, please...

by BobbyMac on Nov 19, 2006 8:39 PM EST

I play in a 5x5 AL roto league, and we have unconventional retention rules - we can keep players forever, but have to pay them their CDM salaries each year, with a $20 million cap on our 25-man rosters (we also have a 15-man bench). We can "contract" up to 7 players at their salaries in their previous seasons (I put a contract on Jered Weaver this year at his 2006 salary, which was minimal). We have an annual draft of available players who have played at least AA ball (and imports).

Categories are a little odd: BA, OBP, SB, HR, RP (R+RBI-HR).

Anyway, I finished next-to-last this season. I get the 2nd pick in the draft. To me, there are so far three outstanding picks:

J.D. Drew (assuming about an $1100 salary - most stars make ~$1500 to $2000 max)
Diasake Matsuzaka (assuming $1000, but he could be anywhere from $500-$1500)
Alex Gordon ($100)

Gordon would be ultra-cheap this year, and each of the next 5 years. My team will be mildly in contention this year, although losing Liriano hurts badly. I have adequate 2007 SP (with great future, hopefully), and have Teahen at 3b, and holes in LF and RF right now (I also have Butler coming).

Option 1: The patient thing to do would be to draft Alex Gordon and take my lumps this year again while looking forward to watching the Royals for the next decade or so, yet probably failing to break into the money this year.

Option 2: The "grab the money and run" move would be to take Drew if he signs with the Red Sox. Given any sort healthiness at all in that lineup, he should put up some huge numbers. He'd fill a hole, and I think he's a reasonable gamble to out-stat Gordon for 2007 and 2008. I think adding Drew puts me into contention for the #2/#3 money slots, assuming I can figure out LF and Closer.

Questions: I'm assuming that Matsuzaka will be gone with pick 1, but maybe not. How would people rank these three? Should I try to trade for the #1 pick to insure I get one of these guys? Bonds, Schmidt, C-Lee may all be available too, assuming they come to the AL.

Thanks!

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I would probably go with Drew

He'll have the injury albatross hanging around his neck the rest of his career. But it would seem if he had a minor injury the BoSox could plug him into the DH hole for a bit here and there. With Drew's OBP, the short right field porches in the AL East, and him hitting somewhere in the 2-3-4 slot in the lineup he could score a ton of runs besides having more rbi opportunities than he was used to in the NL.

I would look at it this way, if Drew cost $1100 and you got $2000 in value from him you have a net of $900 this coming year. Plus if you can keep his salary at $1100 for next season you could possibly pull off another $900 net. That's $1800 in two seasons.

If you pay $100 for Gordon this year odds are you won't get any net because the Royals intend to keep him in the minors in 2007 (except for maybe a Sept call-up). In 2008 he'll be cheap again but will be battling the learning curve of AL pitching besides hitting in a lineup that won't be all that great. So even if he has a cheap salary in 2008 his net may not be all that great either.

As for 2009-11, I don't know. That is way down the line and no telling what will happen to players by then with injuries, trades, etc. It would be hard for me to look beyond 2008. I would take Drew the next two years along with the likely net profit he could pull in. If he bows out due to injury then so be it. But I think you would feel much better come draft day with Drew on your roster. Heck, if he gets injured you could always offer him and is discounted salary straight up for Gordon later on. It's a tough call but I would go with Drew.

It makes thins more difficult to analize this because you did not include pitching stats your league uses.

by acr on Nov 19, 2006 11:05 PM EST reply actions

BA

Unlike Jason Giambi, Drew OBP includes a .300 BA so he is more valuable.

I haven't heard Gordon will be stuck in AAA for most of 2007, but it is a legitmate risk.

What would the #2 pick pull in a trade down?

by faketeams on Nov 20, 2006 7:15 AM EST reply actions

To be perfectly honest.....

You mention that your team would be "mildly" in contention this year. Well, you can either shoot for the moon with a JD Drew type, who could lower your team's potential in comaprison to AG, or go the way of AG, and really have a behemoth squad, as soon as April, if he makes the club. My thought is if Drew makes your team "mildly contenders", then AG is the way to go. I think Gordon is a can't miss prospect who will give you almost everything Drew does without $1000 in salary, on a prorated basis. I would expect Gordon this year to this:
Given a full season of 550 AB:
25 HR
90 RBI
15 SB
.280
80 Rs

However, the trade off you are making by going with AG is the risk of a 400 AB season, where his production looks more like this:
17HR
55 RBI
10 SB
.280
60 Rs

The question you should be asking yourself is this:

Is the trade off in stats you are likely to get in 2007, (I stress 2007 b/c I feel 2008 will be a wash statistically between Drew and AG) worth it for the extra years and cheap $$ of AG?

My gut says no because of the upside AG presents this year if he makes the club out of ST.

Good luck!

by thomasps3 on Nov 20, 2006 12:52 PM EST reply actions

thanks.

Thanks for the thoughtful replies.

One slight problem is that it's not apples-to-apples in 2007, since I have a hole in RF (spelled "Shane Costa"), whereas AG would be bumping a CI (I'm not extra-strong there, but have Casey, Teahen, D.Johnson, and Morales - and I figure 3 of those guys are much better than Costa).

We have interesting OF rules... you have to have 1 each at LF/CF/RF, and then 2 more. And we have a DH slot, and also two EX slots (can be hitter or pitcher). I have two good CF, but nobody has shown any real interest in Hunter or Granderson, and I'm content to just keep them until I get a good offer.

As for trading the #2... I was thinking the same thing and offered it up a couple weeks ago. I was offered Sheffield (before he signed in the AL), and I was offered Ordonez.

My inclination is to keep all 3 of Teahen, Butler, and Gordon (assuming I get Gordon in the draft), and hope they end up covering 3b/LF/RF for me. But I'm going to be a bit ticked if Drew has a huge season, and I end up missing the money by a few points after doing that. :> I have a while to decide, so if anyone else has thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

by BobbyMac on Nov 20, 2006 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

complete team

12-team AL league
hit: BA,OBA,HR,SB,RP(R+RBI-HR)
pit: win%, era, WHIP, saves, K

25 active:
C(2): Napoli, Laird
1b: Casey
2b: Barfield
3b: Teahen
ss: Jeter
mi: Bartlett
ci: D. Johnson
lf: Tyner
cf: Granderson
rf: Costa
of(2): Hunter, ???
dh: Pedroia

sp(5): Jered Weaver, Loaiza, Washburn, Od.Perez, Garza
rp(4): Foulke, Gaudin, Ledezma, Betancourt

ex(2): Inglett, Andrew Miller

bench/minors: Jake Woods, Asdrubal Cabrera, Feierabend, Billy Butler, Alex Romero, Chris Britton, Shawn Riggans, Fausto Carmona, Glen Perkins, Francisco Liriano.

It's obvious that I'll have bullpen problems, and would need some things to "break right" in order to compete (e.g. Washburn and Loiaza having better seasons than expected).

by BobbyMac on Nov 20, 2006 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Reply

In really think in looking at your roster, I would grab AG. Are there any other alternative players you would be expecting if Drew ends up in the NL?

by thomasps3 on Nov 20, 2006 2:20 PM EST reply actions

top players

Right now, I think the top players are: AG, Matsuzaka, and Phil Hughes. Not much noise being made by AL teams yet.

by BobbyMac on Nov 29, 2006 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

AG

Being that you currently have Teahen at 3B I would go with AG. AG is going to replace Teahen at 3B and then you will not have a viable option there. For 2007 you may not get much use out of Gordon however in 2008 and beyond you'll be glad you had him over Drew.

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