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Seeing Through The Fog of ADP: Systems and Rankings - SP

The tattoo might say "Love me or hate me" but I maintain it depends on the round.

I've said this before (and now I'll say it again) - "sleepers" are relative. They lurk in the middle and the end of your draft and they are known and unknown commodities alike.

Looking at starting pitching today, I'm struck by the range where players are being selected and ranked across different systems. It's not that it's just interesting, it's that it can seriously help you. If you're willing to take a player in the 8th round but you don't have to take him until the 13th round, isn't that kind of a "personal sleeper" of sorts?

Allow me to take a step back and explain what the heck it is I'm talking about.

We've been focusing almost exclusively on the results over at Mock Draft Central to help us try and get a thumb on the pulse of where players are going to be drafted. But one of the major problems with mock drafts, and certainly referencing a singular source for mock draft results, is that where a player is selected is intrinsically tied to where they are ranked in that system. The draft can be overwhelming at times, and most managers face that moment of panic where they just can't decide and there's 15 seconds left. There's a darn good chance the player selected is going to at least be in the current queue, right?

Take Madison Bumgarner for instance. Looking at Mock Draft Central, Yahoo, ESPN (rankings), and CBS (rankings), he's a guy you should target either in the 4th, 6th, 7th, or 8th rounds (in no particular order). Helpful for planning purposes, ain't it?

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings: Third Base

Feb 21, 2012; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera during spring training at Joker Merchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

It's amazing how the addition of two top-tier players to a position can change its entire outlook. Back in November, I made the case that the hot corner was probably the second-weakest position on the diamond, but now it's looking pretty strong. In a 12-team league, each owner can grab a third baseman they could reasonably be happy with. The position thins out toward the bottom of this list, but there are still plenty of high-upside guys that you can grab to stash on your bench if you so desire.

Before we dive in, why not check out the rest of our final positional rankings? Make sure you take the time to check out our Google Docs spreadsheet which contains all of our ranks since October, as well as numerous links to articles on individual players:

Fake Teams 2012 Fantasy Baseball Ranks

Links to previous iterations of third base ranks, including head-to-head ranks from Kevin Boger and tiered ranks from Marc Normandin, may be found within the spreadsheet.

The following third base ranks are for a standard 5x5 mixed redraft league. I've included 30 players plus a few explanations.

1. Miguel Cabrera*, DET

2. Jose Bautista, TOR

3. Evan Longoria, TB

4. Hanley Ramirez*, MIA

5. Adrian Beltre, TEX

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Real Teams Preview: Colorado Rockies

DENVER, CO - AUGUST 5: Juan Nicasio #44 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Washington Nationals during their game at Coors Field August 5, 2011 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Marc Piscotty/Getty Images)

Our team-by-team preview of the 2012 MLB season from a fantasy perspective continues today with the Colorado Rockies. If you've just jumped on with our series or need a reminder, we are spending a day with each major league team, looking at 9 different fantasy angles for each franchise while also paying homage to the things we watch for as real life fans. The hope is that through this exercise we might all come to a greater understanding of the various environments that contain the players we spend so much time obsessing over. Fantasy baseball would be a lot easier if these guys played in a vacuum, but since they don't, it's a good idea to learn as much as we can about the circumstances that affect their play.

Make sure you check out Kenneth Arthur's spotlight on various Rockies players, scheduled to post at Noon Central. Our series will continue tomorrow with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

2011 in Review & 2012 Outlook

2011 was nothing short of a disappointment for the Rockies, who were considered by several to be a serious contender for the pennant when they broke camp in March. A 17-8 record in April was great, but didn't seem to be out of line. Injuries and down years from a shocking number of players led to just 56 over the rest of the season, good for a 4th place finish in the NL West.

2012 looks like it could be an in-between kind of year. Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, both acquired for Ubaldo Jimenez at midseason, look like they could contribute soon, but not quite yet, and not much was done over the offseason to address gaping holes in the infield. Veterans Casey Blake and Marco Scutaro will fill in the gaps while the organization waits on the arrivals of Nolan Arenado and...well, second base is a huge problem. On the pitching side, Jorge De La Rosa and Juan Nicasio are doubts to start the season healthy (though Nicasio has recovered quite nicely, considering), so O'Dowd took the curious step of acquiring, among others, Jeremy Guthrie (career fly ball%: 41) and Jamie Moyer (career fly ball %: 40.4). It seems so strange to say such negative things about this team, given what the consensus was just one year ago, but here are the Rockies, a team who will struggle to place third in the division.

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Fantasy Baseball Spotlight: Colorado Rockies

Yay.

(Rookie Watch has turned into Prospect Watch. Highlighting the Key Players in the BA top 10 for the organization.)

The Rockies are one of my favorite National League teams to root for. They've usually got exciting young players and because of their mile high environment, they score a lot of runs and hit a lot of dingers. For a fantasy player, you dream of your guy getting dealt to the Rockies... if he is a hitter.

As a Mariners fan, I've seen my team score under 700 runs in six of the last eight seasons. The only time the Rockies have ever scored less than 700 runs was in the strike-shortened 1994 season. They rack up runs, but because they tend to give up a lot of runs, they've had an up-and-down series of seasons lately.

In 2006, they won 76 games.

In 2007, they won 90 games.

In 2008, they won 74 games.

In 2009, they won 92 games.

In 2010, they won 83 games.

In 2011, they won 73 games.

Which basically tells me that if things break right this season, they could easily improve by 20 games and win the NL West for the first time in franchise history. (That's right. They've never won the division.)

With a few All-Stars already on the roster and another couple potentially on the way, the Rockies are one of the most interesting teams from a fantasy perspective in MLB. Let's take a look at the most important or interesting ones.

Best Hitter: Troy Tulowitzki

Even if Carlos Gonzalez were a consistent 30/30 threat, he wouldn't compete with the best shortstop in baseball. As the top hitter at one of the most scarce positions, Tulo is one of the top 5 fantasy players in baseball.

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UFC 144 In-Depth Preview: Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch

Yushin Okami (center) is one of the most successful Japanese fighters in the history of the Ultimate Fighting Championships, making him an obvious booking for the UFC's return to Japan. (Photo by Koki Nagahama/Getty Images)

Former UFC middleweight title challenger Yushin Okami will look to rebound from his loss to Anderson Silva by handing Tim Boetsch his first ever middleweight defeat. For his part, Boetsch knows that a victory over the #3 middleweight in the world will lend instant credibility to his 2-0 record since making the drop from light heavyweight.

Yushin Okami

Okami is the most-tenured Japanese fighter on the current UFC roster, with nearly half of his 32-fight career having taken place in the UFC since joining in in 2006. With just three losses in his UFC career, to champion Anderson Silva and in a pair of #1 contender bouts, Okami is one of the best there is at 185 pounds.

Recent Fights

After twice having fallen in bouts which would have earned a shot at Anderson Silva's belt, first dropping a decision to former champion Rich Franklin then again coming up short against Chael Sonnen, Okami finally got over the bar and earned his shot at the title. A TKO of Lucio Linhares was followed up by decisions over Mark Munoz and Nate Marquardt, setting up a rematch with Silva, who Okami holds a win over from a Rumble on the Rock bout when Silva was disqualified for head kicking Okami while the Japanese fighter was in his guard. The rematch also ended with Okami battered and unable to defend himself, and unfortunately for Okami the blows were all legal this time.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Okami's style inside the cage is not always the most crowd-pleasing, but he remains one of the most effective fighters in the sport at forcing his game plan onto an opponent. Although his striking at range has improved, and he should hold an edge in this fight in that phase, it remains the weakest aspect of his game. Where Okami prefers to be is in tight. He has good offense from in the clinch, with both strikes and throws, and once on the mat he possesses a smothering top game which he uses to earn TKO's or dominant decisions.

Fantasy Impact

Okami is giving a +2 underdog bonus to his opponent in fantasy picking, which is usually the surest sign that you want to be picking somebody to win a fight. Okami has a much more proven record at the upper end of the sport, and should take the bout comfortably. The question becomes whether or not Okami can finish Boetsch, and while he has struggled with being decision-heavy in his UFC career, he has also spent much of it against top-end opposition, and this bout seems like another chance like the Linhares fight to pick up a TKO win in the middle frame.

Tim Boetsch analysis after the jump.

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Fake Teams Writers League Mock Draft Results

"Matt, Ray picked both of us in his mock last night, bro!"
"Wtf is Ray?"

Last night, a bunch of Fake Teams writers got together for a 5 x 5 Mixed League Mock Draft over at Mock Draft Central. The Fake Teams writers who participated included:

Ray

Jason

Robert

Michael

Bret

Craig

Rob (aka smokeymcpots)

Kevin

Kenny

We had a few guys who couldn't make the draft for one reason or another, no big deal really, so the remaining 3 spots were filled by one of Rob's friends and two auto drafters.

My draft results follow after the jump:

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Fantasy Basketball Pick-N-Roll and Waiver Wire List

One of these guys was the biggest story of the night.


We had five games to cover from Tuesday and we hit on every one of them in PNR. There are some no-brainer adds and a lot of guys that might be worth watching. I'd also just like to mention that we had our first Fake Teams mock draft for baseball and be on the lookout for the results in the next day or so. I took part in it and it was a lot of fun.

Pick-N-Roll and Waiver Wire Scoops from Tuesday after the jump.

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Prospect Rankings Discussion: A Quick Look at Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List

Photo

We were lucky enough to receive another top 100 list today, this time from the guys over at Baseball America. Their list is the only one so far that comes from a group of experts, as opposed to one specific expert. Their list is also a little bit different in that they ranked both Yu Darvish, and Yoenis Cespedes, since both had signed when they prepared their list. You can find the whole list here, and here's their top 10:

1. Bryce Harper, WAS

2. Matt Moore, TAM

3. Mike Trout, LAA

4. Yu Darvish, TEX

5. Julio Teheran, ATL

6. Jesus Montero, SEA

7. Jurickson Profar, TEX

8. Shelby Miller, STL

9. Trevor Bauer, ARI

10. Dylan Bundy, BAL

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