Earlier this week, Joe Girardi jokingly put Derek Jeter in the clean-up spot knwoing the game would be rained out.  It was the kind of light-hearted thing that could take a team's mind off its disappointing season.

Tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays, Derek Jeter is batting third on the strength of his .303 AVG.  In every other statistic this season, Derek Jeter is a nine-hole hitter.   His walks number just six, and he trails Minnesota Twins' CF Carlos Gomez in extrabase hits, too.

The question is how long Jeter will be able to hit this way before the fantasy world recognizes Jeter has turned into a hitter of Placido Polanco's ilk - no power, no speed, high AVG hitter.  Once that transformation is complete, someone somewhere may also turn an eye towards the $19MM per season Jeter is being paid.

Then one wonders if Hank Steinbrenner will turn his verbal ire towards one of the Yankees' real problems.

Hey, guess what THIS post is about?

 Yes,  it’s about the growing trend of NFL teams starting one "power" back and one "speed" back.   For those of you keeping track at home,  I’ve already covered how the Panthers, Cowboys and Steelers have drafted personnel that  allows  them to move to this offense.  Today it’s about Chris Johnson (24^th overall) and the Titans, a team who should’ve figured this out earlier.

via theredzonereport.com

When the Titans drafted LenDale White, they probably felt they got themselves a bargain.  When White was teamed up with Reggie Bush in college, some pundits felt that White’s hard, grinding work between the tackles was overshadowed by Bush’s heroics.  Once he was away from Bush, LenDale White was expected to be the prototypical NFL back: a grinding, dominating runner that could pick up a team and carry them on his broad back.

 Uh, no.

 It turns out that White wasn’t overshadowed.  White was a powerful back, but without a complimentary speedy runnning back, he just isn’t all that successful.  In half of his games last season he averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry.  This isn’t a dig at White, he’s a strong runner and a good fantasy choice, but he’s simply not the type of guy that can carry the running back load by himself.   (Neither is Reggie Bush, but that’s another post).

 The Titans, to their credit, realized this and drafted the extra-speedy, extra-versatile Chris Johnson to complement White.   Johnson is fast (he had the fastest 40 yard time at the NFL Combine), he’s elusive and he can catch the ball.  He brings a new dimension to what was a plodding Titans running game.  Tennessee’s offense should be much improved by the addition of Johnson.

 That said, is he going to be good for your fantasy team?  I say absolutely, though you won’t see fantasy-starter-level production from him every single game.   The Titans will make sure he gets his carries, and he’s going to break open some big games, but he’ll rarely see a goal line carry.   I’ll project him to finish with about 600 rushing yards and maybe one touchdown, but add in receiving yards (remember, the Titans STILL have a WR problem) and it wouldn’t be surprising for Johnson to close in on 1000 all-purpose yards in 2008.   Maybe I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but right now I’m high on Chris Johnson’s fantasy prospects for this year. 

David Stockstill, Director of Minor League Operations for the Baltimore Orioles was the guest last Friday on John Sickels' "Down On The Farm" show on XM Radio.  He provided some updates for a variety of the O's better known prospects.  What stuck out to me was the conservative philospohy the Orioles are using with their players.

This was explicitly stated about the pitcher Chris Tillman, the top pitching prospect the team received from the Seattle Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade, and not so explicitly stated about last year's top draft pick, C Matt Wieters, who is tearing-up Hi A.

AAA Norfolk:
1. Garrett Olson: needs time to adjust to each new level...improved change-up
2. Mike Costanzo: very good athlete...can play several positions...valuable as a utility player
AA Bowie:
1. Nolan Reimold: over-swings because of pressure to get to majors.
2. Chris Tillman: live fastball..let him pitch...will be conservative promoting him due to past organizational errors made by being too aggressive
3. David Hernandez: batters do not see the ball well out of his hand
4. Jason Berken:  92-93 MPH, good slider and sinker, very good command
Hi A Frederick:
1. Matt Wieters: no timetable...will stay at Hi A for the foreseeable future
2. Billy Rowell: working on defense at 3B...learning not to pull every pitch
3. Jake Arrietta: viewed as a start...pitches get away from him becuase he tries to do too many things
4. Brandon Erbe:  in tight spots, tires to throw harder...learning how to pitch
Low A Delmarva:
1. Tony Butler:  longer arm in delivery...can't be as pinpoint in control as Garrett Olson can be...smoothed out delivery...if commands slider, can move quicker.

Here is an interview by Dave Laurila of Baseball Prospectus with Chris Tillman

Reports have the Seattle Mariners scouting Reds' OF Ken Griffey, Jr. as a solution to all that ails their offense. Whether or not that is the case, I am not sure the M's front office could look past the bump in gate that Griffey will bring to determine that. What I can say is Griffey's presence will negatively effect the two rookies the M's recently recalled to help their offense.

RF Wladimir Balentien was recalled to replace RF Brad Wilkerson and his AVG that is only good enough to start for the Toronto Blue Jays. C Jeff Clement was recalled to provide pop from the DH spot occupied by former 2B Jose Vidro. Balentien will be out of a starting job if Griffey plays RF, and Clement will be out of a job if Griffey DHs. Jose Vidro just disappears down the rabbit hole when Griffey arrives.

Given the prospects GM Bill Bavasi has dealt for other veterans, I wouldn't be surprised to see a very good prospect leave the Mariners in a Griffey trade. Recall Vidro cost the M's Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto, Eddie Perez cost Asdrubel Cabrera and Ben Broussard came at the price of Shin-Soo Choo. This means it is not out of the realm of possibility that Clement or Balentien are not trade bait.

I am not sure who the Reds will receive except to say that I will not be surprised if those player(s) are better than any baseball pundit expects. The Reds could use pitching, an OF to replace Adam Dunn and/or a catcher.

So the Pittsburgh Steelers become yet another team that’s decided to go with the "Thunder and Lightning" approach to the running game by drafting muscle-bound RB Rashard Mendenhall (23^rd overall).  Say goodbye to Willie Parker being one of the best running backs in fantasy, and say hello to a very unsettled running back by committee situation.

via graphics.fansonly.com

If you’ve read my reviews for Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones, this post is going to be déjà vu all over again.  Despite Willie Parker rushing for over 1300 yards last season, he proved unable to pound the ball into the end zone.  Enter the 5’ 10", 210 lb Mendenhall, described as having "a low center of gravity and thick legs" .  Well, there you go.

 For fantasy purposes it’s hard to know just how much work Mendenhall is going to get.  I feel confident stating that Stewart will get the majority of carries as the new "power" back in Carolina, because DeAngelo Williams just hasn't shown that he's going to take charge.   That isn’t the case in Pittsburgh, where the speedy Willie Parker is very, very much in charge.  It’s possible that Mendenhall will mostly play a fullback role in his rookie season, watching as Parker races down the field and then coming in to pound it in from the three yard line.  I think that’s unlikely though.  Mendenhall does have some pass-catching skills, so he should see the field between the 10 yard lines as well.

 If I had to decide now, I’d say that Mendenhall will see about 150 carries and finish with 600 yards and between six and nine touchdowns.  That’s not good enough to be a regular starter on your fantasy team, but he will be good enough to fill-in your flex slot during bye weeks or if you get hit with injuries.   Mendenhall will also finish with good receiving totals for a running back, so keep that in mind if you league scores running back receptions and/or yardage.

The Toronto Blue Jays split a double header with the Cleveland Indians despite the Indians' starting pitchers throwing 18 shutout innings.  To make matters worse, the Jays' starting pitchers allowed just three runs over 16.2 innings.  Unfortuantely, the Jays' offense is putrid.  In the second game, Marcus Scutaro was at DH and Jose Velandia started at SS.

The Los Angeles Dodgers placed SS Raphael Furcal on the 15-day D.L..  This opens the door for rookie Chin-Lung Hu to try out for the starting job in 2009.

The other teams in Los Angeles sent 3B Brandon Wood to AAA in favor of 26-year-old Matt Brown.  Is Wood done as a prospect?  The Angels have Macier Izturis, Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick on the DL, and the team still doesn't have any place to get Wood regular ABs.

Baseball Happenings dynamic feature that draws on the collective knowledge of the blogging community to provide intelligence on which players are currently considered the leading contenders for the big three baseball awards - MVP, Cy Young and ROY - for the American and National leagues enters its 4th week.  The NL voting will be available here  . 

Here is the way I voted.  My biases for voting in the Cy Young and MVP awards lean towards those hitters and pitchers playing on contending teams.  ROY determination is not tied are strongly to his team's record, but good rookies on expected play-off contenders will get additional consideration.

NL Cy Young:

1.  Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks
2.  Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds
3.  Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs

8-0 on a 1st place team is a lock.  Coming in second is the ERA and Strikeout leader, Edinson Volquez, and closing fast is Chicago Cubs' ace Carlos Zambrano.  I'd expect Zambrano to surpass Volquez shortly, but, until then, I'll just marvel at what Volquez has accomplished.

NL MVP:
1.  Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
2.  Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
3.  Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins

Lance Berkman leads the NL with a 1.235 OPS.  Add sixe stolen bases and you get the best hitter in the NL.  Chase Utley offers a 1.089 OPS and an NL-leading 13 HRs.  He just noses out Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez as a result of those HRs.  Albert Pujols just missed with his .500 OBP, bhut I can't get too excited because of the mere 7 HRs.

NL ROY:
1.  Geovanny Soto, Chicago Cubs
2.  Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago Cubs
3.  Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs' catcher Geovanny Soto takes over the top spot with a 1.003 OPS.  Teammate Kosuke Fukudome falls to second because Soto's postion and SLG outpace Kosuke's excellent .481 OBP.  Reds' 1B joey Votto noses out Braves' SP Jair Jurrjens thanks to history-making 3HR/1Sb day.  He is also drawing some walks which should serve to keep his OBP respectable.  In a weaker field, Dodgers' 3B Blake DeWitt would get more props with a slash stat line of 323/398/479 - after doing worse between Hi A & AA last season!

Minnesota Twins' CF Carlos Gomez has walked just five times with 134 ABs. As a result, he is constantly mentioned as a player who could lose his job. Are there any other players with fewer walks or even the same number in more ABs who don't seem to draw the same attention as the 22-year-old speedster does?

Here is the answer to my rhetorical question.

Amongst these are some players who will never lose their full-time job this season. The biggest one is New York Yankees' SS Derek Jeter. With just one HR on the season, he has nothing going for him but the hope that the walk and power outages are just proof of a small sample size and not the beginning of the end.

The Washington Nationals engendered a lot of positive feelings in the pre-season.  They had just come off a 73-win 2007 season that defied all the pre-2007 expectations.  Most of those held the Nationals would lose 100 and possibly set the record.  As a result of their prediction-defying 73 wins, the Nationals garnered gushing praise from Baseball Prospectus for the managerial acumen of Manny Acta and were expected by most forecasters to improve some more with a move away from the unfriendly hitting confines of RFK Stadium to the can't-be-anything-but-more-friendly ones of Fed-Ex Field.

Despite being on pace to beat last year's record as measured by W-L on the same date last year (11-25 in 2007 and 15-23 in 2008 on May 12), the impression remains that the Nationals are disappointing.  I believe this is largely the fault of two things:  the offensive production of 3B Ryan Zimmerman and the starting outfielders.

The case for optimism on 3B Ryan Zimmerman was put forth intelligently, and convincingly, by Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus :

"Zimmerman may seem like an odd choice for the list, given how well he’s played in his first two full seasons. However, Zimmerman’s raw stat lines have been held down by his home park, RFK Stadium, which just killed power, especially right-handed power. Zimmerman’s home/road splits do not reflect this gap—he’s slugged .501 at RFK in his career, .435 on the road, but a guiding principle of performance analysis is that an individual’s home/road splits, even over two years, do not mean that player isn’t being affected by his home park. We know what RFK did to run scoring and power, and moving to a new park should enable Zimmerman to convert some of his doubles to home runs. Throw in development—he’s 23 this season—and you have the recipe for a breakout. David Wright might well have been the most valuable player in the National League last season; Zimmerman will be a better player than Wright in 2008. "

One need only look at the 2008 efforts of Zimmerman and David Wright to see Zimm isn't even better than the 2008 version of David Wright.

The second reason the Nationals have disppointed is the lack-luster performance of their three outfielders - Wily Mo Pena, Lastings Milledge and Austin Kearns.  Pena and Kearns were expected to improve thanks to the move away from RFK and the fact they are still relatively young, but Milledge has even greater expectations on him.  He was very young and had a great Spring Training.  Expectations were further inflamed by his public declaration that he'd steal 30 bases in 2008.  Since he swiped six in ST, this seemed likely.

Looking at the 2008 efforts of those three OF, one can understand why Elijah Dukes was recalled.  Whether or not I agree with his 2+nth chance or not, I am not in the business of winning baseball games.

It must be good to be the Dallas Cowboys these days.  Your team is so good, and has so few needs, that you can draft to your strengths on almost every pick.  That’s what brought Felix Jones (22^nd overall) to Dallas, even though the Cowboys have (had) a rising star in  Marion Barber.

 I’ve already bitched about how I hate this pick from a fantasy perspective because it minimizes the fantasy value of  both Jones and Barber.  Since I’m just going to have to deal with it, (…grumble…) I’ll just go right into what we kind of fantasy performance we should expect from Felix.

 Felix Jones is a "speed" back – a fast runner who is better avoiding defenders than powering through them.  At Arkansas, his teammate Darren McFadden did the grinding work between the tackles while Jones blazed outside.  Jones even ran back kicks while in college – something he won’t do often in the NFL but it gives you an idea of the kind of speed and elusiveness he brings.

 Given that Marion Barber is the "power" back in Dallas,  this sets up the now-standard running back duo of one power back and one speed back, what was once called the "Thunder and Lightning" approach.  While not optimal for fantasy owners, this structure can work if the NFL team in question is dedicated to giving both players carries.  Let’s assume that the Cowboys will manage both backs the right way.

 In the past few years there have been three successful backs that came into the NFL with situations similar to Jones – in other words, "speed" backs drafted by teams that had established "power" backs.  Averaging the rookie season output of those three (Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jerious Norwood) gives you totals of 713 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.  

 I would consider that a good estimate for Felix Jones’ production in 2008. The seven rushing touchdowns are a bit high (the average is skewed by Jones-Drew’s amazing 13 TDs) but if your league scores receiving TDs and/or return TDs then I could see Jones hit seven touchdowns overall.

 Felix Jones is a good place for production and should be drafted in all fantasy leagues.  Jones would make a very good RB3, especially if your league scores for running back receptions.