Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Cleveland Indians for 2010.
by Ian, yo on Feb 9, 2010 3:00 PM EST
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1. Grady Sizemore- Sizemore missed a good chunk of time in 2009 due to elbow surgery and when he wasn't missing time, he was playing with a sore elbow. Sizemore should start spring training healthy after elbow and lower abdomen surgery and should come at a good value in the third rounds. Draft him and don't be surprised to see another 30/30 year out of him.
2. Shin Soo-Choo- One of my favorite sleepers pre-2009, Choo erupted onto the scene, going 20/20 with a .300 average tossed in there. If he continues to improve, we could see better RBI totals and having a healthy Sizemore sure doesn't hurt. P.S. I'd like to know who thought differently of scrapping his player photo on SBnation.
3. Asdrubal Cabrera- He may not do anything extraordinarily well, but he should be a good bet to finish the season with double digit steals, near .300 with 90+ run upside. If I were a betting man, I would take the under on the runs, but look how well that worked out for my Colts pick.The dual eligibility at SS and 2B makes him worth owning as a bench option at least.
4. Matt LaPorta- Coming into 2009, LaPorta was one of the players who probably didn't live up to his ADP. He might struggle to hit for a decent average in 2010, but LaPorta could put up 18+ home runs and middle of the order type of runs and RBI numbers. Just remember that this is the Indians middle of the order.
5. Kerry Wood- I don't really have much to say about Wood here. He's probably a good bet to land you 25+ saves and at least a K per inning. Whether he gives you 60 innings or 20 innings is big question. On the bright side, for where he'll be drafted, he's not going to ruin your season if he stinks.
Sleeper alert. Chris Perez- Brought over in the Mark DeRosa trade, Perez will likely take over 8th inning duties and should provide you with you sufficient strikeout totals. Perez's value lies mainly in Kerry Wood's future, however. Wood is a free agent at season's end and if the Indians feel like they've fallen out of contention enough, Wood could be on the move, thus opening a spot for Chris Perez to take the job.
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Fantasy Baseball: Baseball HQ's Rebound Candidates For 2010
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 9, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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As I have stated previously, Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster is full of interesting articles, lists and of course, projections for almost every major leaguer. One of the lists he provides is his Rebound candidates for 2010.
He creates his list based on the player's Random Variance which is "a guage that measures the probability that a player's performance in the subsequent year will exceed or fall short of the immediate past year's numbers. Expressed on a scale of -5 to +5, this only measure variables for which outliers tend to refress. Positive scores indicate rebounds, negative scores indicate corrections. The variables tracked for Hitters are: outlying levels for H%, HR/FB and xBA."
Here are some of the hitters he expects to rebound in 2010:
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Down On The Farm: Project Prospect's Top 50 Prospects For 2010
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 9, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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Adam Foster over at Project Prospect posted his Top 50 prospects yesterday. I previously posted his Top 10 prospects here. Let's take a look at his top 50 prospects:
| Rk | Player | Pos | Comments | Age | Org | Lvl | ||||||
| 1 | Jason Heyward | RF | Has the skills to turn into one of baseball's best hitters; back injury is a concern | 20.7 | ATL | AAA | ||||||
| 2 | Desmond Jennings | CF | Solid bet to surface as an above-average big leaguer, with his D and contact bat | 23.4 | TB | AAA | ||||||
| 3 | Jesus Montero | C/DH | Sick power bat and an elite contact hitter, though he's probably not a catcher | 20.4 | NYY | AA | ||||||
| 4 | Stephen Strasburg | RHP | May emerge as No. 1 as soon as '10; painful mechanics will likely lead to injury | 21.7 | WAS | NCAA | ||||||
| 5 | Carlos Santana | C | Power-hitting catcher with outstanding patience; could become a plus defender | 24.0 | CLE | AA | ||||||
| 6 | Dustin Ackley | CF/LF | In convo for decade's best college hitter; patient LD bat and good defensive OF | 22.1 | SEA | NCAA | ||||||
| 7 | Brian Matusz | LHP | Command pitcher with a power arsenal and MLB track record; potential No. 1-2 | 23.2 | BAL | MLB | ||||||
| 8 | Buster Posey | C | Polished all-around hitter and a solid defender; very high floor as well as ceiling | 23.0 | SF | MLB | ||||||
| 9 | Justin Smoak | 1B | Elite patience and power to go along with good contact skills; limited to 1B on D | 23.3 | TEX | AAA | ||||||
| 10 | Fernando Martinez | LF/RF | Plus power/good contact skills may allow him to ascend to stardom some day | 21.5 | NYM | MLB | ||||||
| 11 | Alcides Escobar | SS | One of baseball's best defensive SS; elite contact bat but not much power or BB | 23.3 | MIL | MLB | ||||||
| 12 | Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Awesome power hitter; probably doesn't have the agility for 3B; will K often | 23.2 | PIT | AA | ||||||
| 13 | Michael Taylor | LF/RF | Making unbelievable strides as a pro; scary part is he could continue to improve | 24.3 | OAK | AAA | ||||||
| 14 | Neftali Feliz | RHP | Stuff is filthy (FB sat 93-96 in MLB);will he be able to jump up to SP innings? | 21.9 | TEX | MLB | ||||||
| 15 | Michael Stanton | RF | No one doubts 80 power -- also patient; contact struggles do give him a low floor | 20.4 | FLA | AA | ||||||
| 16 | Josh Bell | 3B | Should be solid defender; patient, powerful & works the count well; could K a lot | 23.4 | BAL | AA | ||||||
| 17 | Yonder Alonso | 1B | Very polished LD hitter; patient + makes lots of contact; how much power is here? | 23.0 | CIN | AA | ||||||
| 18 | Jaff Decker | LF | Above-average power hitter and extremely patient; better athlete than most think | 20.1 | SD | A | ||||||
| 19 | Logan Morrison | 1B | Safe bet for a lengthy career; swing + approach may not lead to very much power | 22.6 | FLA | AA | ||||||
| 20 | Mike Leake | RHP | Combines plus plus command and outstanding movement; likely No. 3 - maybe 2 | 22.4 | CIN | NCAA | ||||||
| 21 | Jhoulys Chacin | RHP | Great sinking FB & plus changeup; curve flashes plus break; chance to be a No. 2 | 22.2 | COL | MLB | ||||||
| 22 | James Darnell | 3B | Good bet to be solid MLBer; swing resembles J. Upton's - not as explosive, though | 23.2 | SD | A+ | ||||||
| 23 | Madison Bumgarner | LHP | No. 1-2 upside; great command of deceptive FB; SL is erratic; change lacks polish | 20.7 | SF | MLB | ||||||
| 24 | Domonic Brown | RF | Quick-twitch athlete has great bat speed; awkward swing mechanics limit ceiling | 22.6 | PHI | AA | ||||||
| 25 | Chris Carter | 1B | Monster power will come w/ perhaps 200 Ks a year -- patient too; no value on D | 23.3 | OAK | AAA | ||||||
Head on over to Project Prospect to check out prospects 26-50.
Check out what he said about a few of his top 50 in his Top 50 chat after the jump:
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Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Chicago White Sox for 2010.
by Ian, yo on Feb 9, 2010 12:24 AM EST
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1. Gordon Beckham- This is me going out on a limb. Gordon Beckham will have eligibility at a thin 3B and eventually a thin 2B as he should be the starting second baseman. Bill James loves Beckham this year and has his at 21 HR with over 90 RBI and runs, double digit stolen bases and .288 average. I think he's shooting for the moon, but still think Beckham has the upside to top this list (as a second baseman.)
2. Jake Peavy- I have one reason for not putting Peavy at the top. He hasn't proven to be healthy in the past few years, missing time with injuries in both seasons. Many people believe Peavy will regress in the American League. With Peavy's K numbers and upside, I think he'll be a viable option in the mid-later rounds of drafts.
3. Carlos Quentin- Was 2008 a fluke? Or was 2009 just riddled with too many injuries? How many at bats will we see from Quentin in 2010? If we are going to see near 500, I think he could return to close to his 2008 form and end with similar numbers. I can see Quentin hitting 25 home runs and .270. Kind of underwhelming for an outfielder.
4. John Danks- After an excellent 2008 season, Danks took a step back in 2009, seeing his K/9 drop and BB/9 rise. If Danks can bring his K numbers up, I could see a sub 4 ERA season with over 150 strikeouts. Not a whole lot else, however.
5. Bobby Jenks- I've made it pretty clear that I'm not a fan of Jenks, but people love saves. Sure, he probably won't give you an ERA under 3.00 and will never see his K/9 numbers as high as he used to, but he will probably get you 30+ saves and extra late, you take what you can get.
Sleeper alert. Tyler Flowers- When you think of a catcher, what comes to mind? 5'9, 200? Or 6'4, 245? Tyler Flowers has the build and tools to be a legitimate power threat from one of the thinnest positions in the game. On Thebaseballcube.com's 1-100 scale, Flowers rates a 90 for power, 42 for contact and am 86 for patience. So basically, a power hitting catcher. Flowers very well could see time this year in Chicago.
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Fantasy Sleeper: Arizona Diamondbacks OF Chris Young
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 8, 2010 12:30 PM EST
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This article was originally published over at SB Nation's fantasy baseball site.
Back in 2007, in his rookie season, Diamondbacks outfielder Chris Young surprised the fantasy community by hitting 32 HRs and stealing 27 bases. He did all this with a slash line of .237-.295-.467. Young was in demand in fantasy drafts in 2008 with the thoughts of a 30-30 season from him. But he disappointed fantasy owners by going 22-85-85-14-.248-.315-.443 while striking out in 26% of his at bats.
Fantasy owners figured his 2008 season was just a bad year for him and that Young would be a bounce back candidate in 2009. Not a chance. Young regressed even more to the point that he was optioned to AAA to figure things out without the pressure of facing major league pitching.
Young's 2009 stats were abysmal. He hit 15 HRs, drove in 42 runs while stealing 11 bases in 15 attempts. But he was a BA killer, hitting .212 for the season with an OBP of .311 and a SLG of .400. He increased his K% to 30.7% of his at bats, but also increased his BB% to almost 12%.
Ron Shandler projects Young to go 20-59-14-.237-.316-.445 in 2010. Young hit .278 with 8 HRs and 14 RBI in September 2009, so I am curious if his demotion to AAA in August was a turning point in his career. Fantasy owners should pay attention to how he performs in spring training before drafting him in mixed leagues, But should he bust out of the gate with a solid few weeks in spring training, he could be a late round sleeper.
In auction leagues, I can see Young going for less than $10 in 2010. That might prove to be a real bargain if he has turned the corner. If not, he could end up being platooned more and more in 2010.
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Fantasy Bust: Florida Marlins Outfielder Chris Coghlan
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 7, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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After shoveling some snow and downing a few beers with the neighbors yesterday, I sat down to read Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster. I recommend this book as it really is the bible for fantasy owners. So, I am reading through the comments for each player in alphabetical order, and I come to Chris Coghlan, the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009.
A friend and I have argued about how the prospect experts at Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, among others, rank their prospects. He thinks that it is their job to find guys like Coghlan and rank him accordingly. I disagree. My argument is that ranking prospects is like picking stocks.....it ain't easy. He feels that the experts should have had Coghlan ranked higher in 2009 before he won the rookie of the year. I asked him what Todd Hollandsworth has been up to since he won the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers back in 1996. I argue that the experts rank the prospects based on their ceiling, and not all prospects reach their ceiling.
We agree to disagree.
Anyway, Chris Coghlan did win the NL ROY in 2009, but after looking at his stats and reading Shandler's comments in his book, I am not sure if Coghlan can repeat his 2009 season. For the season Coghlan hit 9-47-8-.321-.390-.460 in 504 at bats with a 77/53 K/BB ratio.
Shandler doesn't think he can repeat his 2009 season. Here are his comments:
9-47-.321 in 504 AB at FLA. Unreal 2H fueled H% unlike any in his past screams regression. Solid-not-special skill set , would play better as a 2B or even 3B-his college and minor league positions.
In the second half of 2009, Coghlan hit .359-.405-.520-.925 with an 87% contact rate and a 40% Hit rate. His xBA was .296 for the second half, which is more representative of the kind of hitter Coghlan is. With all that said, Shandler predicts him to hit 13-64-10-.292-.362-.450 in 2010. Those are solid numbers for a second baseman, but not for a third baseman or outfielder.
Fantasy owners should expect some regression in Coghlan's numbers in 2010, and draft him accordingly. If the Marlins should trade second baseman Dan Uggla, and move Coghlan to second, his value will increase for sure.
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Who Would You Rather Have: Nelson Cruz Or Jayson Werth?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 7, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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I was flipping through the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster yesterday and stopped to see what Shandler had to say about Nelson Cruz. Let's just say he likes him....alot.
Cruz had a very solid 2009 season hitting 33-76-20-.260-.331-.524, a Shandler PX (power) 160, and a SX (speed) 99. He increased his FB% from 37.9% in 2008 to 45.6% in 2009 and maintained his HR/FB% at 21.2% for oth 2008 and 2009. His BABIP was a little low at .280, so we could see an increase in his BA in 2010. He does strike out alot (K% of 25%) but walks a decent amount as well (BB% of 10%).
This is what Shandler had to say about Cruz:
Battled through nagging injuries and proved his '08 breakout was no fluke. Elite power and speed combo, and after another PX 160, power is legit, especially with added FB. Faded in Sept, but this was his first full season. UP-40 HR
Shandler projects him to go 36-103-18-.274-.341-.540 in 2010. Bill James has him projected for very similar numbers-36-98-21-.284-.354-.541.
Jayson Werth had a breakout season in 2009 hitting 36-99-.20-.268-.373-.506. Werth strikes out alot-K% of 27% but also walks alot-BB% of 13%. Like Cruz, Werth increased his FB% from 38% in 2008 to 44.4% in 2009, while his HR/FB% dropped slightly from 21.2% in 2008 to 19.3% in 2009. With that said Shandler sees a repeat in 2010.
Here are his comments:
FB% spike, patience says he looked for balls to drive. HR spike and elite PX (power) says he was successful. 87% SBO says SB should keep coming. H% says he wasn't particularly lucky. We say pay it again.
Shandler projects Werth to hit 35-98-20-.262-.361-.492, while Bill James see a slight regression to 28-88-17-.269-.369-.490 in 2010.
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Fantasy Sleeper: Colorado Rockies Third Baseman Ian Stewart
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST
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For those of you who like to dig up the sleepers, Steve Gardner from the USA Today posted an article on Ian Stewart in his Fantasy Windup blog. In the article, he compares Stewart's 2009 season to Mark Reynolds 2008 season with the thought that Stewart could be the 2010 version of Mark Reynolds.
Head on over to Fantasy Windup and check out his article. Ron Shandler projects Stewart to go 27-86-6-.246 in 2010. I think he could out-perform that projection.
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