Still Time To Grab Alex Cobb
Jeff Niemann is likely to miss most of the rest of 2012 after breaking his fibula last week. While that's disappointing for his fantasy owners, for the Rays, it's simply a chance to dip into their extensive pitching depth. Before the season began, when it was clear Matt Moore was going to end up in the rotation, I took a look at the idea that the Rays had another entire rotation they weren't even using thanks to the glut of young pitching at Durham. The Rays might not have the same farm system they had even a few years ago, but they certainly don't lack for arms at the upper level.
The most major-league ready of the group, the one who pitched last year when the Rays had injury-related holes in the rotation, was Alex Cobb. Cobb got his first start of the 2012 season on Saturday, facing the Braves in Tampa Bay's first interleague series of the year. Following that appearance, his major-league time looks like so:
| Year | Age | Tm | W | L | GS | IP | BF | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 23 | TBR | 3 | 2 | 3.42 | 9 | 52.2 | 224 | 110 | 1.329 | 8.4 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.76 |
| 2012 | 24 | TBR | 1 | 0 | 2.57 | 1 | 7.0 | 28 | 149 | 1.143 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 7.7 | 3.00 |
| 2 Yrs | 4 | 2 | 3.32 | 10 | 59.2 | 252 | 113 | 1.307 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 1.87 | ||
You would like more strikeouts than he's been getting, and given control is his thing, you'd expect fewer walks the more frames he gets to throw in the bigs. But overall, he looks like a solid contributor for the back-end of your fantasy rotation, assuming you're still in need of W that won't hurt your stats, or just need more innings, strikeouts, whatever.
His change-up has been his only pitch inducing swings-and-misses for the Rays, but he's picked up plenty of ground outs with his other stuff in those 59-plus frames. More than one-quarter of all of his opponents have grounded out, which is part the defense behind him, and part his multi-fastball approach.
While his MLB numbers haven't blown anyone away yet, his Triple-A time has made him intriguing. Remember, he's just 24:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | GS | IP | BF | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA (2 seasons) | AAA | 2.73 | 20 | 108.2 | 450 | 1.279 | 8.7 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 9.4 | 3.35 | |||
Triple-A isn't the majors, so don't take this to mean I assume he's going to start striking out over a batter per inning. But there's likely more to look forward to, the more reps he gets in against the world's most advanced hitters. In the meantime, he has Tampa Bay's vaunted defense to assist him, in much the same way Jeremy Hellickson does.
That makes him worth a stash, if not starting, especially as, given he's a young Rays' hurler, his name is sure to be well-known in due time. He's owned in just 14 percent of CBS leagues, and less than one percent of ESPN leagues. Grab him now, before anyone realizes it's a potentially good move.
Roto Roundup: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tim Lincecum and Others
A reader on Twitter recently asked me if he should drop Tigers starter Max Scherzer for Diamondbacks pitching prospect Trevor Bauer and I responded that he should. I hope he waited a day, or didn't listen, as Scherzer thoroughly dominated the Pirates yesterday. He held the Pirates to 2 runs on 4 hits, a walks and 15 strikeouts. And all 15 strikeouts were of the swinging variety. Scherzer induced 26 swinging strikes in all, and turned in one of the more dominating starts of 2012. I certainly did not see this coming.
Is Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg dealing with an arm injury? He was pulled after 5 innings and 90 pitches yesterday. Here is Amanda Comak from the Washington Times:
Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson spotted right-hander Stephen Strasburg in the tunnel leading to the dugout after the fifth inning trying to loosen up his right arm. Strasburg, who survived a rocky and laborious first two innings to retire 10 straight from the end of the second through the fifth, was feeling a little "tightness in his biceps" according to Johnson.
Strasburg gave up 3 runs, one earned, on 4 hits, a walk and struck out 8 to win his 4th game of the season. He is now 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA, 2.19 FIP and 2.52 xFIP. He has struck out 64 and walked 13 in his 53 innings of work this season.
Cardinals first baseman Lance Berkman injured his knee for a Rafael Furcal throw on Saturday night, and now there is a fear that he tore his ACL, and as a result, he is considering retiring. Wow. We will learn more later today. With Berkman on the DL, the Cardinals called up AAA first baseman Matt Adams to take his spot on the roster. Adams should see the majority of starts at first base for the Cardinals going forward.
More Roto Roundup after the jump:
Minor League Level Review (AAA): Matt Adams and Travis d'Arnaud Homer Twice, Matt Harvey Strikes Out 11
The AAA levels have been busy in the past two weeks, as we saw a number of prospects move from AA up to their AAA affiliates. Some of the bigger names included Royals' OF Wil Myers and P Jake Odorizzi, and on Thursday we found out that the Diamondbacks' Trevor Bauer would be moving up to AAA Reno as well. Given that Bauer struck out 11, allowed just a solo home run and four other baserunners over 8 innings, I think he will be just fine with the new level. All stats are for all AAA levels, and are through Friday night's games.
Pacific Coast League
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - .353/.416/.707, 27 R, 9 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 39 RBI, 2 for 3 SB, 14 BB, 31 K
I saw Rizzo twice last week when Iowa was here in Sacramento, and I'm of the opinion that the Cubs need to figure out how to teach him or LaHair to play a corner outfield spot, because the bat is more than ready. I wrote about Rizzo after having seen him on Saturday night, and on Monday he proceeded to hit an absolute bomb here in Sacramento and had a couple more well-hit balls. Now would be the time to start thinking about stashing him in 10 and 12 team leagues if you still can.
Josh Bell (ARI) - ..323/.393/.548, 20 R, 11 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 1 for 4 SB, 16 BB, 25 K
Claimed by the Diamondbacks from the Orioles, Bell has been crushing it so far for Reno. It's hard to remember sometimes that Bell is still just 25 years old, and if the combination of Ryan Roberts and Cody Ransom continues to struggle, we could see Bell up in Phoenix before too long.
Matt Adams (STL) - .338/.373/.597, 19 R, 9 2B, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 1 for 1 SB, 9 BB, 27 K
The heir apparent for 1B for the Cardinals, Adams just keeps hitting and hitting well. I think Adams spends the majority of the season in AAA, as the Cardinals seem to have a wealth of options at the moment to play 1B. Adams homered twice in the game on Friday night against Las Vegas, and just continues to look more like a 25+ homer bat once he's in the Majors.
Travis d'Arnaud (TOR) - .293/.359/.453, 18 R, 10 2B, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 1 for 2 SB, 13 BB, 25 K
d'Arnaud is coming off of a two home run game on Friday night, but with J.P. Arencibia on pace for some ridiculous numbers from a catcher, d'Arnaud could be in Las Vegas for a while.
FAABwire Week Six
Welcome to the sixth FAABwire series for the 2012 season. This article will cover the top pickups of the week and how much FAAB (Free agent acquisition budget) you should spend. The FAABwire series is mostly catered to twelve and fifteen team mixed league formats. Each week I will mostly focus on players that are owned in under thirty-four percent of CBS leagues. FAAB bids are of course very specific to individual leagues, so I will give you ballpark bids of what it should take to acquire each player based on a one thousand dollar budget. Throughout the week, feel free to tweet players at me that I can discuss is the column. @MarkusPotter
This week as I had previous commitments, so the amazing Michael Pichan of The Fantasy Nomad Show and RotoInfo.com pinch hit for me and provided the content for this weeks FAABwire. A big thank you to @FantasyNomad
Roy Oswalt (Owned: 23%) (FAAB: $ 75)
Another aging veteran possibly ready to make his return to the major leagues in Roy Oswalt. Although Oswalt has not signed with a team yet, CBSsports.com reports that he wants to sign a contract by June, now is a good opportunity for you to acquire Oswalt at a discount. And Like Pettitte, Oswalt should eventually land on a team that should provide good offensive run support.
Joaquin Benoit (Owned: 17%) (FAAB: $ 80)
In recent years, a pattern has seemed to emerge where closers who had an extremely great season the previous year had the tendency to get hurt or falter the following year, thus opening the door for the next man in line. If and when Valverde returns Benoit should be kept, as Valverde's injury could linger and you can benefit from Benoit's career high 14.36 K/9 rate to go along with any saves he gets while Valverde is sidelined.
Felix Doubront (Owned: 37%) (FAAB: $100)
There's the old adage, "One persons junk is another man's treasure." Sometimes the best place to find a player is to view the players dropped by your league mates each week. Coming into week eight, Felix Doubront's ownership was at 34% and slightly rose to 37%, so it may be a slim chance, but if Doubront was dropped last week go after him as he could be this season's version of Ivan Nova, but with a much higher K/9 rate.
Roto Roundup: Aroldis Chapman, Adam Jones, Ian Kennedy and Others
Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy has one heckuva breakout season in 2011. He went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 3.50 xFIP with a 1.09 WHIP and a 3.60 K/BB ratio. After his Saturday start, he is 3-4 with a 4.47 ERA,
3.84 FIP and 4.02 xFIP. I wasn't buying his 2011 breakout, but he has been one unlucky starter in 2011. Thus far in 2012, his strikeout rate is down to 7.19 vs 8.03 in 2011, and his BABIP is .318 vs .270 last season, so he has some work to do to duplicate his breakout season in 2011.
Reds closer Sean Marshall got hit around yesterday vs the Yankees. He got just one out, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits and nearly blowing his second save of the season. In 14.1 innings this season, he has struck out 21 and walked just 3, but has given up 22 hits and 8 runs for an ERA of 5.02 and a WHIP of 1.74. Here is quotes from Reds manager Dusty Baker, on reliever Aroldis Chapman, after yesterday's game, via John Fay at the Cincinnati Enquirer:
"He’s been so good in the eighth," Baker said. "Like I said, you’ve got to graduate to that position. Who knows maybe graduation time is here? We’re got to discuss it, talk about it. Matter of fact, we already talked to him about it.
It appears Chapman will get a chance to close going forward. He has struck out 38 and walked 7 in 21.1 scoreless innings this season. I imagine he will shoot up closer rankings come Monday.
More Roto Roundup after the jump:
Fantasy Football 2012 Rankings: Tight End
The tight end is no longer just an extension of the offensive line. Some of these guys are just as athletic as the flankers and split ends lined up beside them, Calvin Johnson notwithstanding. NFL teams have spent an average of 17 picks per draft on tight end in the past four drafts and there were just 12 taken in the 2012's weaker draft class at the position. What's more, teams like the Jets and Bills are focusing their offseason acquisitions on grabbing extra safeties that can help in coverage against twin TE sets.
Amazingly, three of the top eight pass catchers are listed at tight end. Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Brandon Pettigrew aren't your ordinary tight ends, especially the first two. It's not a coincidence that seven of the eight top passing-yardage leaders each had a tremendous tight end as a target. Those seven were: Brees to Graham, Brady to Gronkowski and Hernandez, Stafford to Pettigrew, Rodgers to Finley, Rivers to Gates, Romo to Witten, and Ryan to Gonzalez.
With regards to how to address tight end, it's a lot like drafting a QB. If you're in a league where you know your competition is on the ball, it's probably wiser to spend your earlier picks on backs and receivers. If, however, you find yourself dominating the waiver wire, then it's more logical to grab yourself an elite tight end. Similarly, it's going to be very hard to have quality backs and receiver if two of your top four picks are spent on QB and TE.
Fake Teams Fantasy Links of Interest
To keep you up to date with all of our fantasy baseball and football coverage, here are links to links to all of our articles this week:
Minor League Prospect Coverage
Coming Soon To A Stadium Near You: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs - Fake Teams
Low Level Prospect Review: Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox - Fake Teams
Prospect Preview: Tyrell Jenkins - Fake Teams
Minor League Level Review (Low-A): Francisco Lindor Cruising, Dylan Bundy Throws 5 - Fake Teams
Danny Hultzen vs Trevor Bauer Tonight - Fake Teams
Waiting in the Wings: Wil Myers - Fake Teams
Low Level Prospect Review: George Springer, OF, Houston Astros - Fake Teams
Fantasy Football Rankings
Fantasy Football 2012 Rankings: Running Back Part I - Fake Teams
Fantasy Football 2012 Rankings: Quarterbacks - Fake Teams
Fantasy Football 2012 Rankings: Wide Receiver Part I - Fake Teams
Fantasy Football 2012 Rankings: Tight End - Fake Teams
More links to Fake Teams articles after the jump:
Eric Hosmer: Is Now the Time to Buy?
Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer came into the 2012 season full of hype based on his solid 2011 rookie season. Many fantasy writers, myself included, saw a hitter who was ready to break out this year, building on his strong 2011 season. But American League pitchers had a different plan, and Hosmer has struggled to start the season.
Will he turn things around?
Let's start by taking a look at his 2011 season. Hosmer hit .293-.334-.465 with 19 HRs, 66 runs scored, 78 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 523 at bats. His BABIP was .314, so he really did not have the benefit of luck to explain his 2011 performance. It was all skill. He struck out in only 14.6% of his at bats last season, while taking the free pass 6.0% of the time. In addition to his 19 HRs, he also had 27 doubles and 3 triples, for a total of 49 extra base hits, not bad for a hitter seeing major league pitching for the first time.
Looking at his Line Drive/Ground Ball/Fly Ball batted ball data, courtesy of FanGraphs, we see he tends to hit the ball on the ground a bit too much for a power hitter. Last year he hit the ball on the ground just under 50% of the time the bat struck the ball. His line drive rate was 18.7% and his fly ball rate was 31.7%. Not the type of numbers you want to see from a hitter who is expected to approach 30 home runs and hit around .290 in 2012 (my projections)
Moving on to his 2012 performance, we see that Hosmer is hitting just .174-.237-.319 with 5 HRs, 16 runs scored, 18 RBI and 1 stolen base in 144 at bats. Despite the horrible triple slash line, Hosmer has REDUCED his strikeout rate from 14.6% to just 11.5%, and he is walking more this year-7.7% of his at bats vs. 6.0% in 2011. So, he has improved his plate discipline, yet has started the season in a horrible slump.
So, what has gone wrong for Hosmer in 2012? Well, his batted ball data, courtesy of FanGraphs, tells us he isn't hitting many line drives, as his line drive rate has dropped to just 16%, and the dreaded ground ball rate has jumped to 52.8%, while his fly ball rate has remained relatively constant. So he has traded some line drives for more ground balls. Not good for a hitter who doesn't utilize speed to get on base,
What really jumps out on his player page,though, is his BABIP. It has been virtually cut in half, from .314 in 2011 to just .165 this season. One-sixty-five!!! That's absurd, but it won't last. Know this, Eric Hosmer will break out of this season long slump. He is too good of a hitter to hit under the Mendoza line. He is not injured as far as we know, so injuries are not a factor in his poor performance. It is just bad luck. His .165 BABIP is the worst among qualified hitters in all of baseball. Adam Lind, who just got sent down to AAA by the Blue Jays, had a better BABIP (.209) than Hosmer.
I think it is a perfect time to trade for Hosmer now, assuming his owner has become fed up with him, before he gets hot and his owner is asking for more than 80 cents on the dollar for him. Hosmer has sat out the Royals last two games to clear his head. He should come back refreshed and ready to see more of his batted balls dropping in for base hits.


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