Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Chicago White Sox for 2010.
by Ian, yo on Feb 9, 2010 12:24 AM EST
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1. Gordon Beckham- This is me going out on a limb. Gordon Beckham will have eligibility at a thin 3B and eventually a thin 2B as he should be the starting second baseman. Bill James loves Beckham this year and has his at 21 HR with over 90 RBI and runs, double digit stolen bases and .288 average. I think he's shooting for the moon, but still think Beckham has the upside to top this list (as a second baseman.)
2. Jake Peavy- I have one reason for not putting Peavy at the top. He hasn't proven to be healthy in the past few years, missing time with injuries in both seasons. Many people believe Peavy will regress in the American League. With Peavy's K numbers and upside, I think he'll be a viable option in the mid-later rounds of drafts.
3. Carlos Quentin- Was 2008 a fluke? Or was 2009 just riddled with too many injuries? How many at bats will we see from Quentin in 2010? If we are going to see near 500, I think he could return to close to his 2008 form and end with similar numbers. I can see Quentin hitting 25 home runs and .270. Kind of underwhelming for an outfielder.
4. John Danks- After an excellent 2008 season, Danks took a step back in 2009, seeing his K/9 drop and BB/9 rise. If Danks can bring his K numbers up, I could see a sub 4 ERA season with over 150 strikeouts. Not a whole lot else, however.
5. Bobby Jenks- I've made it pretty clear that I'm not a fan of Jenks, but people love saves. Sure, he probably won't give you an ERA under 3.00 and will never see his K/9 numbers as high as he used to, but he will probably get you 30+ saves and extra late, you take what you can get.
Sleeper alert. Tyler Flowers- When you think of a catcher, what comes to mind? 5'9, 200? Or 6'4, 245? Tyler Flowers has the build and tools to be a legitimate power threat from one of the thinnest positions in the game. On Thebaseballcube.com's 1-100 scale, Flowers rates a 90 for power, 42 for contact and am 86 for patience. So basically, a power hitting catcher. Flowers very well could see time this year in Chicago.
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Fantasy Sleeper: Arizona Diamondbacks OF Chris Young
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 8, 2010 12:30 PM EST
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This article was originally published over at SB Nation's fantasy baseball site.
Back in 2007, in his rookie season, Diamondbacks outfielder Chris Young surprised the fantasy community by hitting 32 HRs and stealing 27 bases. He did all this with a slash line of .237-.295-.467. Young was in demand in fantasy drafts in 2008 with the thoughts of a 30-30 season from him. But he disappointed fantasy owners by going 22-85-85-14-.248-.315-.443 while striking out in 26% of his at bats.
Fantasy owners figured his 2008 season was just a bad year for him and that Young would be a bounce back candidate in 2009. Not a chance. Young regressed even more to the point that he was optioned to AAA to figure things out without the pressure of facing major league pitching.
Young's 2009 stats were abysmal. He hit 15 HRs, drove in 42 runs while stealing 11 bases in 15 attempts. But he was a BA killer, hitting .212 for the season with an OBP of .311 and a SLG of .400. He increased his K% to 30.7% of his at bats, but also increased his BB% to almost 12%.
Ron Shandler projects Young to go 20-59-14-.237-.316-.445 in 2010. Young hit .278 with 8 HRs and 14 RBI in September 2009, so I am curious if his demotion to AAA in August was a turning point in his career. Fantasy owners should pay attention to how he performs in spring training before drafting him in mixed leagues, But should he bust out of the gate with a solid few weeks in spring training, he could be a late round sleeper.
In auction leagues, I can see Young going for less than $10 in 2010. That might prove to be a real bargain if he has turned the corner. If not, he could end up being platooned more and more in 2010.
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Fantasy Bust: Florida Marlins Outfielder Chris Coghlan
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 7, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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After shoveling some snow and downing a few beers with the neighbors yesterday, I sat down to read Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster. I recommend this book as it really is the bible for fantasy owners. So, I am reading through the comments for each player in alphabetical order, and I come to Chris Coghlan, the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009.
A friend and I have argued about how the prospect experts at Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, among others, rank their prospects. He thinks that it is their job to find guys like Coghlan and rank him accordingly. I disagree. My argument is that ranking prospects is like picking stocks.....it ain't easy. He feels that the experts should have had Coghlan ranked higher in 2009 before he won the rookie of the year. I asked him what Todd Hollandsworth has been up to since he won the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers back in 1996. I argue that the experts rank the prospects based on their ceiling, and not all prospects reach their ceiling.
We agree to disagree.
Anyway, Chris Coghlan did win the NL ROY in 2009, but after looking at his stats and reading Shandler's comments in his book, I am not sure if Coghlan can repeat his 2009 season. For the season Coghlan hit 9-47-8-.321-.390-.460 in 504 at bats with a 77/53 K/BB ratio.
Shandler doesn't think he can repeat his 2009 season. Here are his comments:
9-47-.321 in 504 AB at FLA. Unreal 2H fueled H% unlike any in his past screams regression. Solid-not-special skill set , would play better as a 2B or even 3B-his college and minor league positions.
In the second half of 2009, Coghlan hit .359-.405-.520-.925 with an 87% contact rate and a 40% Hit rate. His xBA was .296 for the second half, which is more representative of the kind of hitter Coghlan is. With all that said, Shandler predicts him to hit 13-64-10-.292-.362-.450 in 2010. Those are solid numbers for a second baseman, but not for a third baseman or outfielder.
Fantasy owners should expect some regression in Coghlan's numbers in 2010, and draft him accordingly. If the Marlins should trade second baseman Dan Uggla, and move Coghlan to second, his value will increase for sure.
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Who Would You Rather Have: Nelson Cruz Or Jayson Werth?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 7, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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I was flipping through the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster yesterday and stopped to see what Shandler had to say about Nelson Cruz. Let's just say he likes him....alot.
Cruz had a very solid 2009 season hitting 33-76-20-.260-.331-.524, a Shandler PX (power) 160, and a SX (speed) 99. He increased his FB% from 37.9% in 2008 to 45.6% in 2009 and maintained his HR/FB% at 21.2% for oth 2008 and 2009. His BABIP was a little low at .280, so we could see an increase in his BA in 2010. He does strike out alot (K% of 25%) but walks a decent amount as well (BB% of 10%).
This is what Shandler had to say about Cruz:
Battled through nagging injuries and proved his '08 breakout was no fluke. Elite power and speed combo, and after another PX 160, power is legit, especially with added FB. Faded in Sept, but this was his first full season. UP-40 HR
Shandler projects him to go 36-103-18-.274-.341-.540 in 2010. Bill James has him projected for very similar numbers-36-98-21-.284-.354-.541.
Jayson Werth had a breakout season in 2009 hitting 36-99-.20-.268-.373-.506. Werth strikes out alot-K% of 27% but also walks alot-BB% of 13%. Like Cruz, Werth increased his FB% from 38% in 2008 to 44.4% in 2009, while his HR/FB% dropped slightly from 21.2% in 2008 to 19.3% in 2009. With that said Shandler sees a repeat in 2010.
Here are his comments:
FB% spike, patience says he looked for balls to drive. HR spike and elite PX (power) says he was successful. 87% SBO says SB should keep coming. H% says he wasn't particularly lucky. We say pay it again.
Shandler projects Werth to hit 35-98-20-.262-.361-.492, while Bill James see a slight regression to 28-88-17-.269-.369-.490 in 2010.
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Fantasy Sleeper: Colorado Rockies Third Baseman Ian Stewart
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST
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For those of you who like to dig up the sleepers, Steve Gardner from the USA Today posted an article on Ian Stewart in his Fantasy Windup blog. In the article, he compares Stewart's 2009 season to Mark Reynolds 2008 season with the thought that Stewart could be the 2010 version of Mark Reynolds.
Head on over to Fantasy Windup and check out his article. Ron Shandler projects Stewart to go 27-86-6-.246 in 2010. I think he could out-perform that projection.
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Down On The Farm: Buster Posey To Play Some Infield This Spring??
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 6, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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A few months ago, we heard that the Giants were going to start catching prospect in AAA to start the 2010 season because he had issues catching fastballs. Now we hear this from Henry Schulman at the San Francisco Chronicle:
Manager Bruce Bochy insisted Friday that catching remains Posey's long-term position but said he and general manager Brian Sabean have talked about Posey playing some infield this spring to boost his chances of making the team.
"We're going to give him a lot of playing time this spring," Bochy said. "Everybody looks at the situation with Bengie (Molina) and Eli (Whiteside) and think that Buster has to go to Fresno. But that's not etched in stone."
Will we hear by mid-season that Posey will start playing 3B in the minors?
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Fantasy Baseball: Is Position Scarcity Over-Emphasized By Fantasy Owners?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 6, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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I was checking out Marc Normandin's fantasy baseball chat over at Baseball Prospectus yesterday afternoon, and posted a few Q & A's from the chat. Both fanposts were instances where I disagreed with Marc, but here is one where I tend to agree with Marc. Here is the Q & A:
nschaef (Connecticut): Do you think it's possible that position scarcity has become so emphasized that picking the best available player is a way to exploit a market ineffciency?Marc Normandin: Yes. A friend and I have had discussions about this in the past. People are so desperate to pick up players at positions with scarcity that they miss out elsewhere. Sure, there's a lot to choose from at certain positions, but what happens when you base your team off of Jose Reyes because shorstop sucks and then he misses the year? You're not going to get anyone nearly as good without extreme luck or dealing from a strength, weakening yourself again.
I agree that fantasy owner's do over-emphasize position scarcity in fantasy drafts.Here is an example I used in the past, and it involves Matt Kemp. I have discussed Kemp in several "Who Would You Rather Have" posts, with one here, and an NL Top 10 post here.
When drafting, many fantasy owners look to draft players at positions with scarcity, like catcher, shortstop and second base, and often overlook better players. One can say I am biased ranking Matt Kemp so high, but I would draft him ahead of a Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley, as Kemp, in my opinion, will outperform these two players in 2010.
And Baseball HQ agrees with me. Here is their projections for 2010:
Name HR RBI RS SB BA
Matt Kemp 29 107 98 32 .299
Hanley Ramirez 26 88 111 24 .314
Chase Utley 30 100 111 19 .280
I think Kemp can outperform Shandler's projection, and I am sure there are people who think Hanley can outperform his projection, but as I wrote here, Hanley's power/speed stats have dropped in each of the last 2 years.
I would prefer to draft a hitter who has a very good chance to go 30-30 in 2010, over a hitter at a position of scarcity. If drafting a hitter who plays a positon of scarcity was so valuable, why not draft Hanley Ramirez or Chase Utley at number 1? Why pick Albert Pujols #1 when first base might be the deepest position in fantasy drafts in 2010.
Here is a list of first baseman available in 2010 drafts: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, and Lance Berkman. That is quite a list of available first baseman, but yet Albert Pujols will be the #1 pick in plenty of league drafts this year.
Back when Mike Piazza was going 30-100 playing catcher for the Dodgers and Mets, there weren't many catchers performing like him. Was he ever a number 1 pick in fantasy drafts? I am sure he was (I think I may have picked him #1 in a NL-only league once, and my team didn't fare too well), but was he the best player available? I would say no.
In mixed leagues, position scarcity exists, but not to the extent it does in NL-only or AL-only leagues. But for me, that is no reason to overlook a better player.
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BP Chat with Marc Normandin
David (NJ): Do you see David Wright bouncing back this year? Is he a first round pick?
Marc Normandin: Yes and yes. The Mets seem to think they know what he was doing wrong, and he's shown himself to be quick at adjusting before once the problem is known.
Who in the Mets organization has any clue what is going on with that team? The GM doesn't.
www.baseballprospectus.com
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Ray Guilfoyle
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